Bundesliga 2024-2025: Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel Prediction

Dortmund

Home Team
89%
VS

Holstein Kiel

Away Team
5%
Draw: 7%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 33 24 7 2 95 32 63 79
2 Leverkusen 33 19 11 3 70 41 29 68
3 Ein Frankfurt 33 16 9 8 65 45 20 57
4 Freiburg 33 16 7 10 48 50 -2 55
5 Dortmund 33 16 6 11 68 51 17 54
6 Mainz 33 14 9 10 53 41 12 51
7 RB Leipzig 33 13 12 8 51 45 6 51
8 Werder Bremen 33 13 9 11 50 56 -6 48
9 Stuttgart 33 13 8 12 61 51 10 47
10 M'gladbach 33 13 6 14 55 56 -1 45
11 Augsburg 33 11 10 12 34 49 -15 43
12 Wolfsburg 33 10 10 13 55 54 1 40
13 Union Berlin 33 9 10 14 33 50 -17 37
14 St Pauli 33 8 8 17 28 39 -11 32
15 Hoffenheim 33 7 11 15 46 64 -18 32
16 Heidenheim 33 8 5 20 36 60 -24 29
17 Holstein Kiel 33 6 7 20 49 77 -28 25
18 Bochum 33 5 7 21 31 67 -36 22

Recent Trends

Dortmund ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Leverkusen (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)

Holstein Kiel ❌ ✅ ✅ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Augsburg (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs M'gladbach (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dortmund

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.60
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.77
# Clean Sheets: 1

Holstein Kiel

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.32
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.06
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Dortmund and Holstein Kiel is heavily tilted in favor of the home side, with Dortmund boasting an impressive 89.0% probability of victory. As per the predictions, the game is expected to feature over 2.5 goals, carrying a probability of 61.0%. In terms of league standings, Dortmund sits in 5th position in the Bundesliga, while Holstein Kiel finds themselves struggling at 17th, facing the threat of relegation.

Match Analysis

Dortmund comes into this fixture on a strong note, having secured victories in their last three matches. They convincingly beat Leverkusen 4-2 away, Wolfsburg 4-0 at home, and Hoffenheim 3-2 away. This winning streak highlights Dortmund’s attacking prowess, with an average of 3.2 goals scored over their last five games, while defensively, they have conceded just 0.8 goals per game. Their expected goals metrics further support their offensive efficiency, averaging 2.596 expected goals scored per match. Conversely, Holstein Kiel has had a mixed bag of results recently. They suffered a home loss to Freiburg but managed to secure victories against Augsburg and M'gladbach, scoring a total of seven goals across these two wins. Despite this, their defense remains a concern, having conceded an average of 1.2 goals in their last five outings, with no clean sheets. Their expected goals conceded stands at 2.06, indicating potential vulnerabilities against a potent Dortmund attack.

Final Prediction

Dortmund's current form and superior league position give them a clear edge over Holstein Kiel. Their recent attacking performances suggest they are well-equipped to exploit Kiel's defensive frailties. A key factor to watch will be Dortmund's ability to maintain their offensive momentum, particularly through key players who have been instrumental in their recent goal-scoring spree.