Latest Ligue 1 AI Predictions: Results, Under/Over, Corners & Shots

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2026-2027 model warm-up

First Ligue 1 predictions after Matchday 5

We are waiting for five complete matchdays before publishing the first match forecasts. This gives the model enough current-season evidence to meet our performance standard.

Estimated forecast window October 10, 2026 Counting down to Matchday 6
1
Matchdays 1 to 5Current-season signal builds
2
Quality checksInputs and model outputs are validated
3
Matchday 6First forecasts are published

Why not predict from day one?

Our match forecasts combine neural networks, current-season match data and team ratings. A simple Elo-only estimate can run immediately, but it is not the model we validate and publish. We do not currently have a cold-start neural-network variant that meets the same performance bar, so we prefer a transparent wait to a lower-confidence forecast.

Get the first forecasts on Telegram

Our free Telegram channel posts every day's predictions once the models go live. Join now and the first Ligue 1 forecasts reach you on day one, without checking back here.

View season simulations Join Telegram Channel How we validate models

Season simulations remain available because they use a separate ratings and Monte Carlo engine. The date above is an estimate and can move if fixtures or data availability change.

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What's Inside Each Match Analysis

Every published forecast gets its own in-depth match analysis page, linked from its card as soon as the round is out. Each page provides insights you won't find elsewhere:

AI-Generated Match Preview

Data-driven match analysis with prediction summary, team form assessment, and key tactical insights.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Analysis

Detailed probability breakdown for goals predictions based on team scoring patterns and defensive records.

Shots Predictions

Expected shots derived from neural network probability distributions, not simple averages.

Corners Predictions

Neural network-based corner kick predictions with probability context for more informed analysis.

Goal Spread Predictions

Expected goal difference (home - away) with full probability distributions for handicap analysis.

Learn About Our Methodology

AI-Powered Ligue 1 Predictions

Ligue 1 is France's premier football competition, showcasing both established clubs and emerging talent. Our AI models analyze last 10 seasons of Ligue 1 data, processing approximately 700 features including Expected Goals (xG), shots, corners, and team form metrics to generate predictions with full probability context.

Our proprietary neural network models are trained on 10 seasons of Ligue 1 data and leverage approximately 700 features including latest teams performance, Games metrics , Expected Goals, Corners, Shots.

Match Winner
Under/Over 2.5
Shots
Goal No Goal
Corners
Goal Spread

What sets us apart: Unlike competitors who provide simple averages for shots and corners, our neural network models generate expected values derived from probability distributions. This means our predictions capture the full range of likely outcomes, providing deeper analytical insight than basic statistical averages.

Our models incorporate recent team form, home/away performance differentials, Expected Goals (xG), and match-level metrics such as shots made and conceded, corners, fouls, and possession patterns to deliver comprehensive match predictions.

Historical Ligue 1 KPIs

Explore how key Ligue 1 metrics have evolved over the last 10 seasons. These trends inform our AI models and provide context for current predictions.

44%
Home Wins %
31%
Away Wins %
25%
Draws %
51%
Over 2.5 Goals %
52%
Both Teams Score %
2.7
Avg Goals per Match
24.3
Avg Shots per Match
9.5
Avg Corners per Match

Match Results Trend

Ligue 1 match results trend chart showing home wins, away wins, and draws percentages across seasons

Goals & Over 2.5 Trend

Ligue 1 goals trend chart showing average goals scored and over 2.5 percentage across seasons

Match Metrics Trend

Ligue 1 match metrics chart showing average shots and corners per match across seasons

2026-2027 Ligue 1 Teams

Angers
Auxerre
Brest
Le Havre
Lens
Lille
Lorient
Lyon
Marseille
Metz
Monaco
Nantes
Nice
Paris FC
Paris SG
Rennes
Strasbourg
Toulouse

Ligue 1 Power Rankings

Two rating models, one table. ELO measures accumulated season strength. Glicko-2 adds a confidence layer, flagging teams whose form is inconsistent. The Rank Δ column shows where both systems disagree most. Updated after every matchday.

View Power Rankings

Cross-League Prediction Hub

Compare predictions across all twelve leagues in one view. Sort matches by over/under 2.5 probability, goal spread, corners, or draw likelihood.

O/U 2.5 Spread Corners BTTS Draws

Prediction Transparency

We believe in full transparency. All our historical predictions and their outcomes are publicly available. Track our prediction accuracy and model performance over time:

Current Season Performance 2025-2026 Season Performance Model Calibration

Get Daily Ligue 1 Predictions

If you like our content and want to receive daily predictions, subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven Ligue 1 predictions directly on your phone.

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Download Ligue 1 Probability Data

Every match analysis includes downloadable probability distributions in JSON and CSV format. Access full PDFs, CDFs, and match prediction data for your own analysis.

Open any match analysis above and download structured data with a free account.

Learn How to Use Our Data

Frequently Asked Questions

We are the only sports analytics platform providing neural network-based probability predictions for Ligue 1 matches that go beyond simple averages. Our models generate expected values from deep learning with full probability context for shots and corners predictions, giving you deeper insight into the range of likely outcomes.

Our neural networks process approximately 700 features including Expected Goals (xG), shots made and conceded, corners data, recent team form, and historical match data spanning 10 Ligue 1 seasons.

We provide predictions for match winner (home, draw, away with probabilities), under/over 2.5 goals, corners predictions, shots predictions, and goal/no goal predictions. Each prediction type uses a dedicated neural network model.

We believe in full transparency. All our historical predictions and outcomes are publicly available on our performance tracking page, where you can verify our accuracy across different prediction types and seasons.

A probability distribution shows the likelihood of each possible outcome, not just a single prediction. For example, for corners predictions, instead of just saying 'expected 10 corners,' our models provide the expected value derived from neural network probability distributions, giving you deeper insight than simple averages. Learn more about probability distributions.

We provide two types of charts in each match analysis. The probability distribution chart shows you the likelihood of each possible outcome—the peak indicates the most likely result, and the spread shows how certain the prediction is. The CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function) chart is perfect for understanding over/under scenarios—it shows the probability of outcomes being less than or equal to any value. Read our complete guide to understanding probability charts.

Our predictions are generated on average 2-3 days before each matchday. We process the latest match results, team form data, and performance metrics to ensure predictions reflect the most current information available.

Ligue 1 is known for producing world-class talent and features a mix of competitive teams. The league has seen increasing parity in recent seasons, with away win percentages rising. Our models account for these evolving league dynamics through features that capture both historical trends and current form.