Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hamburg vs Leverkusen Prediction
Hamburg
Home Team
13%
VS
Leverkusen
Away Team
76%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5:
53%
Under 2.5:
47%
Goal:
55%
No Goal:
45%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 63 | 12 | 51 | 44 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 33 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 24 | 10 | 29 |
| 5 | Stuttgart | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 29 |
| 6 | Hoffenheim | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 27 |
| 7 | Ein Frankfurt | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 26 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 23 |
| 9 | Union Berlin | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 | M'gladbach | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Werder Bremen | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 17 |
| 13 | Hamburg | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Wolfsburg | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 15 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 14 |
| 16 | St Pauli | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 12 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 36 | -21 | 12 |
| 18 | Mainz | 16 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 9 |
Recent Trends
Hamburg
- Last Match: vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 4)
- 4th Last Match: vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 1)
Leverkusen
- Last Match: vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 4)
- 2nd Last Match: vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Hamburg
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.34
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.10
# Clean Sheets:
0
Leverkusen
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.10
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.01
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming Bundesliga clash between Hamburg and Leverkusen is heavily tilted in favor of the away team, Leverkusen, with a 76.0% probability of winning. The likelihood of a Hamburg victory stands at a mere 13.0%, and there's a 12.0% chance of a draw. The prediction further suggests a match with over 2.5 goals, with a 53.0% probability. Currently, Leverkusen sits comfortably in 4th place, vying for a Champions League spot, while Hamburg languishes in 13th, perilously close to the relegation zone.
Match Analysis
In their last three outings, Hamburg has struggled, managing just a single point from a draw against Ein Frankfurt, flanked by losses to Freiburg and Hoffenheim. Their performances are characterized by a lack of defensive solidity, having conceded multiple goals in two of those three matches, and they have yet to keep a clean sheet in their last five games. Hamburg's offensive output has been modest, averaging 1.4 goals per game in their recent fixtures.
Leverkusen, on the other hand, has shown signs of resilience, bouncing back from a heavy home defeat against Stuttgart by securing impressive victories over RB Leipzig and FC Koln. Their attacking prowess is evident, with an average of 2.0 goals scored per game over their last five matches. Despite their attacking strengths, defensive vulnerabilities are apparent, having also conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game. However, they have managed to keep a clean sheet in one of their recent matches, suggesting some ability to tighten their defense when necessary.
Final Prediction
Leverkusen's strong attacking form gives them a significant edge over Hamburg, especially given the latter's defensive frailties. The key factor to watch during the game will be Leverkusen's ability to convert their goal-scoring opportunities, which could determine whether they capitalize on Hamburg's defensive lapses. With both teams prone to conceding goals, expect a high-scoring affair that Leverkusen is favored to win.