La Liga 2024-2025: Alaves vs Vallecano Prediction

Alaves

Home Team
56%
VS

Vallecano

Away Team
21%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 27 19 3 5 75 27 48 60
2 Real Madrid 28 18 6 4 59 27 32 60
3 Ath Madrid 28 16 8 4 46 22 24 56
4 Ath Bilbao 28 14 10 4 46 24 22 52
5 Villarreal 27 12 8 7 49 38 11 44
6 Betis 28 12 8 8 38 35 3 44
7 Mallorca 28 11 7 10 28 34 -6 40
8 Celta 28 11 6 11 41 41 0 39
9 Vallecano 28 9 10 9 31 31 0 37
10 Sevilla 28 9 9 10 32 37 -5 36
11 Getafe 28 9 9 10 25 23 2 36
12 Sociedad 28 10 5 13 25 30 -5 35
13 Girona 28 9 7 12 36 41 -5 34
14 Osasuna 27 7 12 8 33 39 -6 33
15 Espanol 27 7 7 13 26 39 -13 28
16 Valencia 28 6 10 12 31 46 -15 28
17 Alaves 28 6 9 13 32 42 -10 27
18 Leganes 28 6 9 13 26 43 -17 27
19 Las Palmas 28 6 7 15 32 47 -15 25
20 Valladolid 28 4 4 20 18 63 -45 16

Recent Trends

Alaves ⚪ ✅ ⚪ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Las Palmas (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Leganes (Goals: 3 - 3)

Vallecano ⚪ ❌ ⚪ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Sociedad (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Villarreal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.33
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.95
# Clean Sheets: 1

Vallecano

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.32
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.60
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

The anticipated outcome for the upcoming clash between Alaves and Vallecano suggests a home victory for Alaves, with a 56.0% chance of winning. Vallecano's chances stand at 21.0%, with a 23.0% chance of the match ending in a draw. Additionally, the game is expected to have fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 48.0% probability supporting this prediction. In the current La Liga standings, Alaves finds itself in a precarious 17th position, while Vallecano is comfortably positioned in 9th place.

Match Analysis

Alaves has shown a resilient spirit in their recent performances, coming off a draw against Las Palmas and securing a crucial win over Villarreal. Their ability to limit goals conceded, as seen in these games, could be crucial against Vallecano. Despite averaging just 0.4 goals per game in the last five matches, their defensive solidity has been commendable, with an average of 0.8 goals conceded. Their expected goals (xG) metrics indicate a potential for improvement, suggesting they could pose a more significant threat if they capitalize on their chances. Vallecano’s recent form has been somewhat inconsistent, with a draw against Sociedad and a narrow loss to Real Madrid before holding Sevilla to a draw. Their attacking efforts have resulted in an average of 0.8 goals scored, while their defense has been slightly more porous, conceding an average of 1.0 goals per game over the last five matches. Vallecano's expected goals conceded (xGA) of 1.602 highlights potential vulnerabilities in their defense, which Alaves might exploit.

Final Prediction

The prediction leans towards an Alaves victory due to their recent defensive performances and home advantage. Vallecano's defensive frailties, as indicated by their higher expected goals conceded, could be a decisive factor in the match. A key aspect to watch will be Alaves' ability to convert their expected goal opportunities into actual goals, which could ultimately determine the match's outcome.