Ligue 1 2024-2025: Auxerre vs Nantes Prediction

Auxerre

Home Team
44%
VS

Nantes

Away Team
30%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 32 24 6 2 85 33 52 78
2 Marseille 32 18 5 9 67 44 23 59
3 Monaco 32 17 7 8 61 37 24 58
4 Nice 32 16 9 7 60 39 21 57
5 Lille 32 16 9 7 50 33 17 57
6 Strasbourg 32 16 9 7 53 39 14 57
7 Lyon 32 16 6 10 63 44 19 54
8 Lens 32 14 6 12 37 38 -1 48
9 Brest 32 14 5 13 50 53 -3 47
10 Auxerre 32 11 8 13 46 47 -1 41
11 Rennes 32 12 2 18 47 46 1 38
12 Toulouse 32 10 8 14 40 40 0 38
13 Reims 32 8 9 15 32 43 -11 33
14 Angers 32 9 6 17 30 50 -20 33
15 Nantes 32 7 11 14 35 51 -16 32
16 Le Havre 32 9 4 19 36 66 -30 31
17 St Etienne 32 7 6 19 35 74 -39 27
18 Montpellier 32 4 4 24 22 72 -50 16

Recent Trends

Auxerre ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lens (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 0)

Nantes ❌ ⚪ ⚪ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Auxerre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.50
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.53
# Clean Sheets: 2

Nantes

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.99
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 3.30
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Auxerre is predicted to emerge victorious in their clash against Nantes, with a 44.0% probability of winning. The match is expected to see fewer than 2.5 goals, as indicated by the 49.0% probability for under 2.5 goals. Currently, Auxerre sits at 10th place in Ligue 1, contrasting with Nantes’ precarious 15th position.

Match Analysis

Both teams have had mixed results in their recent outings. Auxerre's recent form has been a rollercoaster, with a notable 4-0 triumph against Lens sandwiched between losses to Le Havre and Lille. Their ability to score is evident, averaging 1.2 goals per game in their last five matches, yet they concede at the same rate, showing a balance in their recent performances. The advanced metrics highlight Auxerre's average expected goals scored at 1.5, slightly above their actual average, indicating potential for more efficient finishing. On the other hand, Nantes has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per game in their last five matches while managing to score just 1.2. Their recent encounters include a loss to Angers and draws against Toulouse and Paris SG, demonstrating a mix of resilience and frailty. With an expected goals conceded average of 3.298, Nantes' defense will need to tighten up if they hope to contain Auxerre’s attacking threats.

Final Prediction

Auxerre holds the edge in this matchup due to their superior league standing and recent ability to produce decisive victories, as shown in their win against Lens. A key factor to watch will be Nantes' defensive setup, as their recent tendency to concede heavily could tip the scales in favor of Auxerre. If Auxerre can capitalize on their expected goals and maintain defensive solidity, they stand a strong chance of securing the win.