Ligue 1 2024-2025: Le Havre vs Marseille Prediction

Le Havre

Home Team
5%
VS

Marseille

Away Team
90%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 32 24 6 2 85 33 52 78
2 Marseille 32 18 5 9 67 44 23 59
3 Monaco 32 17 7 8 61 37 24 58
4 Nice 32 16 9 7 60 39 21 57
5 Lille 32 16 9 7 50 33 17 57
6 Strasbourg 32 16 9 7 53 39 14 57
7 Lyon 32 16 6 10 63 44 19 54
8 Lens 32 14 6 12 37 38 -1 48
9 Brest 32 14 5 13 50 53 -3 47
10 Auxerre 32 11 8 13 46 47 -1 41
11 Rennes 32 12 2 18 47 46 1 38
12 Toulouse 32 10 8 14 40 40 0 38
13 Reims 32 8 9 15 32 43 -11 33
14 Angers 32 9 6 17 30 50 -20 33
15 Nantes 32 7 11 14 35 51 -16 32
16 Le Havre 32 9 4 19 36 66 -30 31
17 St Etienne 32 7 6 19 35 74 -39 27
18 Montpellier 32 4 4 24 22 72 -50 16

Recent Trends

Le Havre ✅ ⚪ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Auxerre (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Montpellier (Goals: 2 - 0)

Marseille ⚪ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Brest (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Montpellier (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Havre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.75
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.42
# Clean Sheets: 1

Marseille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.07
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.85
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash, Marseille is heavily favored to emerge victorious with a commanding 90% probability of winning. The match is expected to feature more than 2.5 goals, with a 62% probability supporting this prediction. Currently, Marseille is in second place, making a strong push for a Champions League spot, while Le Havre languishes in 16th, fighting to avoid relegation.

Match Analysis

Le Havre has shown mixed form in their last three matches, securing a win against Auxerre, drawing with Monaco, and falling to Paris SG. Despite these efforts, they struggle defensively, conceding an average of 2.6 goals in their last five games. Their offensive output, while improving, remains modest with a 1.4 goal per game average. Advanced metrics reveal they are creating decent chances, evidenced by an expected goals figure of 1.746, but their defense is a significant concern, with 2.416 expected goals against. Conversely, Marseille has displayed impressive offensive prowess lately, especially in their recent victories over Brest and Montpellier, scoring nine goals in two games. However, their defense has been shaky, conceding an average of 2.6 goals over their last five outings. The team's expected goals statistics indicate they are outperforming their actual goal figures, suggesting they are efficient with their chances. Despite not having kept a clean sheet recently, they have the attacking depth to overpower Le Havre.

Final Prediction

Marseille's superior attacking form and higher league standing give them a decisive edge over Le Havre. The key factor to watch will be Marseille's ability to exploit Le Havre's defensive vulnerabilities, which could lead to a high-scoring affair. Fans should keep an eye on Marseille's attacking trio, who have been instrumental in recent victories, as they look to secure three crucial points.