Ligue 1 2024-2025: Montpellier vs Paris SG Prediction

Montpellier

Home Team
0%
VS

Paris SG

Away Team
99%
Draw: 1%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 32 24 6 2 85 33 52 78
2 Marseille 32 18 5 9 67 44 23 59
3 Monaco 32 17 7 8 61 37 24 58
4 Nice 32 16 9 7 60 39 21 57
5 Lille 32 16 9 7 50 33 17 57
6 Strasbourg 32 16 9 7 53 39 14 57
7 Lyon 32 16 6 10 63 44 19 54
8 Lens 32 14 6 12 37 38 -1 48
9 Brest 32 14 5 13 50 53 -3 47
10 Auxerre 32 11 8 13 46 47 -1 41
11 Rennes 32 12 2 18 47 46 1 38
12 Toulouse 32 10 8 14 40 40 0 38
13 Reims 32 8 9 15 32 43 -11 33
14 Angers 32 9 6 17 30 50 -20 33
15 Nantes 32 7 11 14 35 51 -16 32
16 Le Havre 32 9 4 19 36 66 -30 31
17 St Etienne 32 7 6 19 35 74 -39 27
18 Montpellier 32 4 4 24 22 72 -50 16

Recent Trends

Montpellier ❌ ⚪ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Reims (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 2)

Paris SG ❌ ❌ ⚪ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Le Havre (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Montpellier

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.24
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.60
# Clean Sheets: 1

Paris SG

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.96
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.42
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Montpellier and Paris SG is heavily tilted in favor of the away team, with a 99.0% probability of Paris SG securing a victory. The game is expected to see over 2.5 goals, with a 63.0% likelihood of such an outcome. Paris SG sits comfortably at the top of the Ligue 1 standings, while Montpellier is languishing at the bottom, facing imminent relegation.

Match Analysis

Montpellier's recent performances have been troubling, with no wins in their last three matches. They suffered a narrow 0-1 defeat against Brest and were held to a goalless draw by Reims. A heavy 1-5 defeat to Marseille further underscores their struggles. Their attack has been largely ineffective, averaging just 0.2 goals per game over their last five matches. Defensively, they've been porous, conceding an average of 2.4 goals, despite a comparatively lower expected goals conceded figure of 1.6. In contrast, Paris SG's form has been below their usual standards, with two losses and a draw in their last three outings. They fell 1-2 to Strasbourg and 1-3 to Nice, with a 1-1 draw against Nantes in between. Despite these recent setbacks, Paris SG's attacking prowess remains evident, with an average of 3.0 goals scored per game in their last five, supported by an expected goals figure of 2.956. Their defense, while not impenetrable, averages 1.4 goals conceded, maintaining a competitive edge over their opponents.

Final Prediction

Paris SG's superior attacking capabilities and overall squad depth provide them with a clear advantage in this encounter. Montpellier's inability to consistently score and their defensive vulnerabilities make them unlikely to pose a significant threat. A key factor to watch will be Paris SG's attack, which, despite recent hiccups, has the potential to dominate and secure a decisive win.