Ligue 1 2024-2025: Toulouse vs Lens Prediction

Toulouse

Home Team
41%
VS

Lens

Away Team
33%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 32 24 6 2 85 33 52 78
2 Marseille 32 18 5 9 67 44 23 59
3 Monaco 32 17 7 8 61 37 24 58
4 Nice 32 16 9 7 60 39 21 57
5 Lille 32 16 9 7 50 33 17 57
6 Strasbourg 32 16 9 7 53 39 14 57
7 Lyon 32 16 6 10 63 44 19 54
8 Lens 32 14 6 12 37 38 -1 48
9 Brest 32 14 5 13 50 53 -3 47
10 Auxerre 32 11 8 13 46 47 -1 41
11 Rennes 32 12 2 18 47 46 1 38
12 Toulouse 32 10 8 14 40 40 0 38
13 Reims 32 8 9 15 32 43 -11 33
14 Angers 32 9 6 17 30 50 -20 33
15 Nantes 32 7 11 14 35 51 -16 32
16 Le Havre 32 9 4 19 36 66 -30 31
17 St Etienne 32 7 6 19 35 74 -39 27
18 Montpellier 32 4 4 24 22 72 -50 16

Recent Trends

Toulouse ✅ ⚪ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Reims (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 3)

Lens ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Reims (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs St Etienne (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.38
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.99
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.57
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.92
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Toulouse is predicted to come out on top with a 41% probability of winning against Lens, who hold a 33% chance. The probability of the match ending in a draw is 26%. With both teams positioned in the mid-table, Toulouse sits at 12th place and Lens at 8th in the Ligue 1 standings. The match is expected to feature less than 2.5 goals, with a 49% probability, and both teams are likely to score, as indicated by a 55% chance.

Match Analysis

Toulouse heads into this fixture with mixed recent performances, having won, drawn, and lost in their last three encounters. Their latest victory was a 2-1 home win against Rennes, showing resilience on their turf. However, their inability to find the net in their subsequent away games against Nantes and Reims may be concerning. With an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded in the last five games, Toulouse's defense appears somewhat vulnerable. Lens, on the other hand, has displayed a similarly inconsistent pattern. A notable 2-1 away victory over Lyon was followed by a disappointing 0-4 home loss to Auxerre, but they bounced back with a 3-1 win away at Brest. Lens averages 1.4 goals scored per game in the last five matches while conceding 1.2, indicating a slightly stronger attacking front compared to their opponents. Advanced metrics suggest that both teams generate similar expected goals, with Toulouse at 1.376 and Lens at 1.568, while defensively, both are prone to conceding, with expected goals against figures of 1.992 for Toulouse and 1.924 for Lens.

Final Prediction

Toulouse's home advantage and Lens' inconsistent form give Toulouse a slight edge in this matchup. However, Lens' ability to score more consistently could make this a closely contested game. A key factor to watch will be Toulouse's ability to maintain a solid defense against Lens' notable attacking threats. The game promises to be a tightly fought battle, possibly decided by a narrow margin.