Premier League 2024-2025: Chelsea vs Southampton Prediction

Chelsea

Home Team
96%
VS

Southampton

Away Team
1%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Liverpool 27 19 7 1 64 26 38 64
2 Arsenal 26 15 8 3 51 23 28 53
3 Nott'm Forest 26 14 5 7 44 33 11 47
4 Man City 26 13 5 8 52 37 15 44
5 Newcastle 26 13 5 8 46 36 10 44
6 Bournemouth 26 12 7 7 44 30 14 43
7 Chelsea 26 12 7 7 48 36 12 43
8 Aston Villa 27 11 9 7 39 41 -2 42
9 Brighton 26 10 10 6 42 38 4 40
10 Fulham 26 10 9 7 38 35 3 39
11 Brentford 26 11 4 11 47 42 5 37
12 Tottenham 26 10 3 13 53 38 15 33
13 Crystal Palace 26 8 9 9 31 32 -1 33
14 Everton 26 7 10 9 29 33 -4 31
15 Man United 26 8 6 12 30 37 -7 30
16 West Ham 26 8 6 12 30 47 -17 30
17 Wolves 26 6 4 16 36 54 -18 22
18 Ipswich 26 3 8 15 24 54 -30 17
19 Leicester 26 4 5 17 25 59 -34 17
20 Southampton 26 2 3 21 19 61 -42 9

Recent Trends

Chelsea ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 1)

Southampton ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Ipswich (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Chelsea

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.25
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.37
# Clean Sheets: 0

Southampton

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.06
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.34
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Chelsea and Southampton is expected to heavily favor the home side, with a towering 96.0% probability of Chelsea securing a victory. Southampton, languishing at the bottom of the Premier League table, has a slim 1.0% chance of winning. Additionally, there's a 62.0% likelihood that the match will feature over 2.5 goals, suggesting an exciting fixture ahead. While Chelsea sits in 7th place, Southampton finds themselves in a precarious 20th position, facing the threat of relegation.

Match Analysis

Chelsea's recent form has been somewhat inconsistent, with a mixed bag of results in their last three outings. They suffered two consecutive away losses against Aston Villa and Brighton, conceding a total of five goals while only scoring one. However, they bounced back with a home victory over West Ham, scoring twice and conceding once. Chelsea's offensive capabilities are reflected in their average of 2.0 goals scored per game over the last five matches, with an expected goals figure of 2.246, indicating strong attacking potential. Southampton, on the other hand, is struggling at the foot of the table. They have lost two of their last three games, with heavy home defeats to Brighton and Bournemouth, conceding a total of seven goals. Their only recent win came against Ipswich, a fellow struggler, where they managed to score twice. Southampton's defensive frailties are evident, as they have conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game over the last five matches, while their expected goals conceded figure stands at a worrying 2.344, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Final Prediction

Chelsea's superior form and attacking prowess give them a significant edge over a struggling Southampton side. The hosts’ ability to create scoring opportunities consistently will likely prove too challenging for Southampton's shaky defense. A key factor to watch during the game will be Chelsea's attacking efficiency, as they look to capitalize on Southampton's defensive lapses and secure a crucial victory to boost their standing in the league.