Serie A 2024-2025: Atalanta vs Lecce Prediction

Atalanta

Home Team
94%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
2%
Draw: 4%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 33 21 8 4 72 32 40 71
2 Napoli 33 21 8 4 52 25 27 71
3 Atalanta 33 19 7 7 66 30 36 64
4 Bologna 33 16 12 5 52 37 15 60
5 Juventus 32 15 14 3 49 30 19 59
6 Roma 33 16 9 8 48 32 16 57
7 Lazio 32 16 8 8 53 43 10 56
8 Fiorentina 32 15 8 9 49 32 17 53
9 Milan 33 14 9 10 51 38 13 51
10 Torino 32 9 13 10 36 37 -1 40
11 Udinese 32 11 7 14 36 46 -10 40
12 Genoa 32 9 12 11 29 38 -9 39
13 Como 33 10 9 14 43 48 -5 39
14 Verona 33 9 5 19 30 60 -30 32
15 Cagliari 32 7 9 16 32 47 -15 30
16 Parma 32 5 13 14 37 51 -14 28
17 Lecce 33 6 8 19 23 55 -32 26
18 Venezia 33 4 13 16 27 46 -19 25
19 Empoli 33 4 13 16 26 52 -26 25
20 Monza 33 2 9 22 25 57 -32 15

Recent Trends

Atalanta ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)

Lecce ❌ ❌ ⚪ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Como (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Venezia (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Atalanta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.34
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.77
# Clean Sheets: 2

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.03
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.35
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Atalanta and Lecce is heavily tilted in favor of Atalanta, with a staggering 94.0% probability of a home victory. On the flip side, Lecce has a mere 2.0% chance of winning, with a 4.0% probability of a draw. Given Atalanta's strong standing in 3rd place in Serie A, they are expected to maintain their position, while Lecce, currently in 17th place, faces the threat of relegation. The game is also predicted to have fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 44.0% likelihood of this outcome.

Match Analysis

Atalanta has shown commendable resilience in their recent fixtures, with two wins and a single loss. Their victories against Milan and Bologna, both clean sheets, highlight their defensive solidity and ability to secure crucial points in high-stakes matches. However, their narrow loss to Lazio at home indicates room for improvement in offensive execution. Advanced metrics show Atalanta scoring an average of 0.4 goals per game and conceding 0.6, with a promising expected goals tally of 1.34. Their defensive prowess is further underlined by achieving two clean sheets in the last five matches. Conversely, Lecce's recent form is concerning, with two losses and a draw in their last three outings. They suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat against Como and a close 2-1 loss to Juventus, while managing only a draw against Venezia. Lecce averages one goal per game while conceding 1.2, with expected goals scored and conceded aligning closely at 1.026 and 1.348, respectively. Their failure to keep a clean sheet in recent matches highlights defensive vulnerabilities that Atalanta could exploit.

Final Prediction

Atalanta's superior position in the league and recent form give them a clear edge in this encounter. Their defensive robustness and ability to control games will likely be key factors in securing a win. Fans should keep an eye on Atalanta's defensive setup, which has been instrumental in their recent successes and could determine the flow of the game.