Serie A 2026-2027: Atalanta vs Milan Prediction
Atalanta
Home Team
46%
VS
Milan
Away Team
29%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5:
49%
Under 2.5:
51%
Goal:
56%
No Goal:
44%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napoli | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Roma | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | Milan | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Inter | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 15 |
| 5 | Bologna | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Como | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| 8 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Udinese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Lazio | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | Cremonese | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Torino | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Lecce | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Verona | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 |
| 19 | Pisa | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Genoa | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
Recent Trends
Atalanta
- Last Match: vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Como (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Torino (Goals: 3 - 0)
Milan
- Last Match: vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Udinese (Goals: 3 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Atalanta
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.20
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.69
# Clean Sheets:
2
Milan
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.80
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.45
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming Serie A clash between Atalanta and Milan is predicted to end in favor of Atalanta with a 46.0% probability of a home victory. Milan's chances of securing an away win are calculated at 29.0%, while a draw has a 24.0% likelihood. The expectation is for the match to produce fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 49.0% probability, indicating a tight contest between the 7th-placed Atalanta and 3rd-placed Milan.
Match Analysis
Atalanta enters this match on the back of three consecutive draws, having recently shared points with Cremonese, Lazio, and Como. Despite these results, Atalanta has demonstrated resilience, maintaining an unbeaten record in their last eight matches. Their defensive stability is highlighted by two clean sheets in the last five games and an average of 0.75 goals conceded per match. Offensively, they have been slightly underperforming their expected goals figure, scoring 1.5 goals per game against an expected tally of 2.1975.
Milan, meanwhile, has shown a slightly stronger form, securing a win against Fiorentina and drawing against Pisa and Juventus in their last three outings. Milan's defense has been particularly impressive, boasting two clean sheets in the recent five matches and an average of just 0.0 goals conceded per game. This defensive prowess could be a significant factor in their favor. Offensively, Milan has averaged 1.67 goals per game, marginally below their expected goals of 1.7967, indicating a potential for more clinical finishing.
Final Prediction
Atalanta's predicted edge over Milan in this fixture mainly stems from their solid home performance and overall unbeaten streak in the league. Their ability to maintain defensive solidity while creating opportunities gives them a slight advantage. A key factor to watch will be how Milan's robust defense, which has been almost impenetrable recently, manages to counter Atalanta's attacking prowess. This intriguing battle between Atalanta's attack and Milan's defense will likely define the outcome of the match.