Serie A 2024-2025: Empoli vs Verona Prediction

Empoli

Home Team
65%
VS

Verona

Away Team
16%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Napoli 37 23 10 4 57 27 30 79
2 Inter 37 23 9 5 77 35 42 78
3 Atalanta 37 22 8 7 76 34 42 74
4 Juventus 37 17 16 4 55 33 22 67
5 Roma 37 19 9 9 54 35 19 66
6 Lazio 37 18 11 8 61 48 13 65
7 Fiorentina 37 18 8 11 57 39 18 62
8 Bologna 37 16 14 7 56 44 12 62
9 Milan 37 17 9 11 59 43 16 60
10 Como 37 13 10 14 49 50 -1 49
11 Torino 37 10 14 13 39 43 -4 44
12 Udinese 37 12 8 17 39 53 -14 44
13 Genoa 37 9 13 15 34 48 -14 40
14 Cagliari 37 9 9 19 40 54 -14 36
15 Verona 37 9 7 21 32 65 -33 34
16 Parma 37 6 15 16 41 56 -15 33
17 Lecce 37 7 10 20 26 58 -32 31
18 Empoli 37 6 13 18 32 57 -25 31
19 Venezia 37 5 14 18 30 53 -23 29
20 Monza 37 3 9 25 28 67 -39 18

Recent Trends

Empoli ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Monza (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Venezia (Goals: 2 - 2)

Verona ⚪ ⚪ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Como (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Empoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.56
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.23
# Clean Sheets: 0

Verona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.55
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.22
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Empoli is predicted to emerge victorious in their upcoming encounter against Verona, with a strong 65.0% probability of a home win. The likelihood of an away win stands at a mere 16.0%, while a draw is considered a 19.0% possibility. With both teams residing in the lower echelons of the Serie A standings, Empoli is currently 18th, teetering on the edge of relegation, whereas Verona sits just above them in 15th place. The forecast suggests a low-scoring affair, with a 44.0% probability that the match will end with fewer than 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Empoli appears to be finding some late-season form, securing two wins in their last three games. Their recent victories against Monza and Parma have been vital, each featuring a solid defensive display, conceding only one goal in each match. However, their performance against Lazio was less convincing, suffering a narrow 1-0 defeat at home. Meanwhile, Verona has struggled to find victories, with their last three games yielding two draws against Como and Lecce, and a loss to Inter. The goalless encounter against Inter highlights their struggles in front of goal. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities in defense, as reflected in their advanced metrics. Empoli has averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per game over the last five matches. Their expected goals metrics indicate slightly underwhelming attacking performances with an average of 0.558 expected goals scored per game. Verona's statistics are similar, with an average of 0.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Their expected goals scored per game stands at 0.552, suggesting a lack of clinical finishing in front of goal. Neither side has managed a clean sheet in their last five outings, highlighting potential defensive frailties that could be exploited.

Final Prediction

Empoli's edge in this matchup can be attributed to their recent form, particularly their ability to pick up crucial wins amidst a relegation battle. Their slightly better attacking output compared to Verona may prove decisive. A key factor to watch will be Empoli's ability to capitalize on Verona's defensive lapses, potentially securing a vital result in their fight for Serie A survival.