Serie A 2025-2026: Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction

Napoli

Home Team
59%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
20%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 22 17 1 4 50 19 31 52
2 Milan 22 13 8 1 35 17 18 47
3 Roma 22 14 1 7 27 13 14 43
4 Napoli 22 13 4 5 31 20 11 43
5 Juventus 22 12 6 4 35 17 18 42
6 Como 22 11 7 4 37 16 21 40
7 Atalanta 22 9 8 5 30 20 10 35
8 Bologna 22 8 6 8 32 27 5 30
9 Lazio 22 7 8 7 21 19 2 29
10 Udinese 22 8 5 9 25 34 -9 29
11 Sassuolo 22 7 5 10 24 28 -4 26
12 Cagliari 22 6 7 9 24 31 -7 25
13 Genoa 22 5 8 9 25 31 -6 23
14 Cremonese 22 5 8 9 20 29 -9 23
15 Parma 22 5 8 9 14 26 -12 23
16 Torino 22 6 5 11 21 40 -19 23
17 Lecce 22 4 6 12 13 29 -16 18
18 Fiorentina 22 3 8 11 24 34 -10 17
19 Pisa 22 1 11 10 18 37 -19 14
20 Verona 22 2 8 12 18 37 -19 14

Recent Trends

Napoli ❌ ✅ ⚪ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 2)

Fiorentina ❌ ✅ ⚪ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.74
# Clean Sheets: 2

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.53
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.85
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Napoli and Fiorentina leans heavily in favor of the home team, with a 59.0% probability of Napoli securing victory. In contrast, Fiorentina's chances stand at 20.0%, while a draw is slightly more likely at 21.0%. Given the prediction for the match to have under 2.5 goals, fans can expect a closely contested encounter. Currently, Napoli sits comfortably in 4th place, eyeing Champions League qualification, whereas Fiorentina languishes in 18th, battling relegation concerns.

Match Analysis

Napoli's recent performances have been a mixed bag, showing resilience with a win against Sassuolo but also slipping to a loss against Juventus and a draw with Parma. Scoring has been a slight concern, averaging 1.6 goals per game over the last five matches, but their defensive solidity, conceding only 0.8 goals on average, could prove crucial. With two clean sheets in their recent outings, Napoli's defensive organization will be key against Fiorentina. Fiorentina, on the other hand, has been struggling with consistency. Their recent form includes a win against Bologna, a draw with Milan, and a home loss to Cagliari. They have managed to find the net once per game on average, but defensive frailties have been exposed, conceding 1.8 goals per match. Despite a decent expected goals tally of 1.53, Fiorentina's backline, which has shown vulnerability, will be under pressure to contain Napoli's attacking threats.

Final Prediction

Napoli's edge in this contest comes from their stronger defensive performances and higher position in the league standings. Their ability to keep clean sheets could be decisive against a Fiorentina side that has struggled to maintain defensive solidity. A key factor to watch will be Napoli's ability to capitalize on their home advantage and convert their defensive resilience into a winning performance.