Serie A 2025-2026: Torino vs Lecce Prediction

Torino

Home Team
75%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
11%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 22 17 1 4 50 19 31 52
2 Milan 22 13 8 1 35 17 18 47
3 Roma 22 14 1 7 27 13 14 43
4 Napoli 22 13 4 5 31 20 11 43
5 Juventus 22 12 6 4 35 17 18 42
6 Como 22 11 7 4 37 16 21 40
7 Atalanta 22 9 8 5 30 20 10 35
8 Bologna 22 8 6 8 32 27 5 30
9 Lazio 22 7 8 7 21 19 2 29
10 Udinese 22 8 5 9 25 34 -9 29
11 Sassuolo 22 7 5 10 24 28 -4 26
12 Cagliari 22 6 7 9 24 31 -7 25
13 Genoa 22 5 8 9 25 31 -6 23
14 Cremonese 22 5 8 9 20 29 -9 23
15 Parma 22 5 8 9 14 26 -12 23
16 Torino 22 6 5 11 21 40 -19 23
17 Lecce 22 4 6 12 13 29 -16 18
18 Fiorentina 22 3 8 11 24 34 -10 17
19 Pisa 22 1 11 10 18 37 -19 14
20 Verona 22 2 8 12 18 37 -19 14

Recent Trends

Torino ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Como (Goals: 0 - 6)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 0)

Lecce ⚪ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Torino

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.50
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.63
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.55
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.45
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Torino and Lecce leans heavily in favor of the home side, with a 75.0% probability of Torino securing a victory. Despite both teams struggling in Serie A, Torino's home advantage and superior standing at 16th compared to Lecce's 17th suggest they might come out on top. The game is expected to feature fewer than 2.5 goals, given a 45.0% probability for an under 2.5 goals result.

Match Analysis

Torino enters the fixture in dire need of a turnaround, having suffered three consecutive losses. They have failed to find the net in their last three outings, with a particularly disheartening 6-0 defeat away to Como. Their recent inability to score contrasts with their expected goals metric, which suggests they should be finding the back of the net more frequently. Defensively, they have conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game in their last five matches, indicating vulnerabilities that Lecce might exploit. Lecce, on the other hand, also struggles with form. They have lost two of their last three matches, managing only a goalless draw against Lazio. Lecce's offensive woes are evident, averaging just 0.2 goals per game over their last five and failing to score in their recent matches against top-tier teams like Milan and Inter. Their defense has been slightly more resilient, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game, but their expected goals against suggest they might be in for a tougher time defensively.

Final Prediction

Torino's stronger probability of winning stems from their slightly better league standing and the advantage of playing at home. Although both teams have shown recent struggles, Torino's expected goals data indicates potential for improvement in front of goal. A key factor to watch will be whether Torino can capitalize on their expected goal opportunities to break their scoring drought and secure a much-needed win.