Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Alexandre Muller vs Holger Rune Prediction

Alexandre Muller

Rank: #39
37%
VS

Holger Rune

Rank: #9
63%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Holger Rune

Ranking Trends

Alexandre Muller

  • Current Rank: #39 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #39 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #58 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #68 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #102 (2024-07-22)

Holger Rune

  • Current Rank: #9 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #9 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #13 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #14 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #16 (2024-07-22)

Player Metrics

Alexandre Muller

Form Index: 30.7
ELO Rating: 1311.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1611.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 86.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.5
Clay: 11.2
Grass: 8.6
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 88.7

Holger Rune

Form Index: 38.6
ELO Rating: 2246.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1828.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.2
Clay: 20.6
Grass: 21.9
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 85.2

Recent Matches

Alexandre Muller
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Beibit Zhukayev (2-0) hard Washington 86 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Roman Safiullin (0-2) grass Mallorca 115 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (1-2) clay Hamburg 178 min

Holger Rune
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Nicolas Jarry (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (1-2) grass London 146 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Mackenzie McDonald (2-1) grass London 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexandre Muller
vs
0
Holger Rune
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the ATP 500 tournament in Washington, DC, Holger Rune is set to face Alexandre Muller on hard courts. The young Danish talent is favored to win, with a probability of 62.99%, while Muller has a 37.01% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played in this match is approximately 23.

Match Analysis

Holger Rune currently holds a rank of 9 and boasts a form index of 38.60, significantly higher than Alexandre Muller's rank of 39 and form index of 30.70. Rune's Elo rating of 2246.79 reflects his higher level of play, particularly impressive given Muller's 1311.13. Fatigue is also a crucial factor; Muller's cumulative fatigue stands at 86 minutes from the current tournament, whereas Rune comes in fresh with 0 minutes of fatigue. On hard surfaces, Rune's strength index of 18.25 is markedly superior to Muller's 8.46. Looking at their recent performances, Muller recorded a solid win over Beibit Zhukayev in the current tournament, whereas his previous matches at Wimbledon and Mallorca were challenging, losing to top players like Novak Djokovic. Rune's recent outings were mixed; he faced tough competition at Wimbledon but managed to secure a victory against Mackenzie McDonald earlier in London before falling to both Nicolas Jarry and Roberto Bautista Agut. Despite this, Rune's experience and higher surface strength make him a formidable opponent.

Final Prediction

Holger Rune's higher ranking, superior surface strength, and lack of fatigue grant him a distinct advantage in this matchup against Alexandre Muller. A key factor to observe will be how well Muller can handle Rune's serve, given the relatively small difference in their serve indexes, which could determine the flow of the match.