London Great Britain Grass Atp 500 Round of 32

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
74%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #28
26%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #2 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #3 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #3 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #3 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #2 (2024-06-17)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current Rank: #28 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #39 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #61 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #63 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #33 (2024-06-17)

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 99.5
ELO Rating: 6661.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2362.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.8
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.6

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 47.3
ELO Rating: 1408.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1682.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.6
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 6.8
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jannik Sinner (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Musetti (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) clay Hamburg 106 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Gael Monfils (2-0) clay Hamburg 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jesper de Jong (0-1) clay Rome 66 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is set to take place in the Round of 32 at an ATP 500 tournament in London, played on grass. Alcaraz is heavily favored to win with a probability of 74.46%, while Davidovich Fokina's chances sit at 25.54%. The predicted total number of games played is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz, currently ranked 2nd in the world, boasts an impressive form index of 99.47 and a high Elo rating of 6661.20. His surface strength index on grass stands at 58.82, suggesting he performs well on this surface. Alcaraz’s mean serve index is notably strong at 96.10, exceeding Davidovich Fokina's 94.77 by over 5 points, which could be a significant advantage. In contrast, Davidovich Fokina, ranked 28th, has a lower form index of 47.31 and an Elo rating of 1408.67. Both players have a fatigue level of 0.0, indicating they are fresh for the match. In their recent performances, Alcaraz has demonstrated remarkable consistency, winning all three of his last matches at Roland Garros, albeit on clay. His last match against Jannik Sinner showcased his resilience, winning 3 sets to 2. Conversely, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has had mixed results; he lost his most recent match against Jiri Lehecka but managed to secure a victory against Pablo Llamas Ruiz in the previous round. This inconsistency may hinder his performance against a player of Alcaraz's caliber.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's superior ranking, form, and serve strength provide him with a clear edge in this matchup. A key factor to monitor will be how effectively he can leverage his serve against Davidovich Fokina, who may struggle to counter the intensity of Alcaraz’s game on grass.