Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 32

Damir Dzumhur vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Damir Dzumhur

Rank: #69
7%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #3
93%
Predicted Games Played: 33.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Player Metrics

Damir Dzumhur

Form Index: 62.5
ELO Rating: 911.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1567.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.6
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 89.7

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 82.4
ELO Rating: 6533.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2359.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 59.7
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Damir Dzumhur

  • Last Match: vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Andrey Rublev (0-2) clay Hamburg 89 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Vilius Gaubas (1-2) clay Rome 147 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Matteo Arnaldi (0-2) clay Madrid 104 min

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Last Match: vs Fabian Marozsan (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Giulio Zeppieri (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (2-0) clay Rome 103 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-0) clay Rome 123 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jack Draper (2-0) clay Rome 97 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Damir Dzumhur
vs
0
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Damir Dzumhur and Carlos Alcaraz in the Round of 32 at Roland Garros promises to be an intriguing contest on clay. Given the stakes of a Grand Slam tournament and the players' current forms, Carlos Alcaraz is predicted to emerge victorious with a win probability of 92.69%, while Dzumhur's chances stand at 7.31%. The expected total number of games played is estimated to be 33.0.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz, currently ranked 3rd, boasts a significantly higher form index of 82.41 compared to Dzumhur's 62.51, indicating a sharper competitive edge. Alcaraz's Elo rating of 6533 dwarfs Dzumhur's 911.64, further emphasizing the disparity in their current competitive standings. Both players exhibit the same cumulative fatigue of 348 minutes, yet Alcaraz's surface strength index of 59.66 is substantially higher than Dzumhur's 7.77, showcasing his better adaptation to clay. Furthermore, Alcaraz's mean serve index (94.97) is closely matched with Dzumhur's (96.15), but the latter's superior serve may not compensate for the overall strength Alcaraz brings to the court. On the return side, Dzumhur's mean return index (89.68) exceeds Alcaraz's 87.89, suggesting that Dzumhur may have an advantage in this area. In their recent performances, both players have shown resilience. Dzumhur has successfully won his last two matches at Roland Garros, showcasing steady performance on clay. However, he faced a tough loss against Andrey Rublev at Hamburg prior to the tournament. Alcaraz, on the other hand, is riding a wave of confidence with three consecutive match wins, all at Roland Garros, including a flawless performance against Giulio Zeppieri and a solid victory over Fabian Marozsan.

Final Prediction

The predicted advantage for Carlos Alcaraz stems from his superior ranking, form, and overall consistency on clay, making him a formidable opponent for Dzumhur. A crucial factor to watch will be Alcaraz's ability to maintain pressure with his aggressive baseline play, which may overwhelm Dzumhur during crucial points in the match.