Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Andrey Rublev Prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #27
40%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #15
60%
Predicted Games Played: 39.0
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

Ranking Trends

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current Rank: #27 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #27 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #21 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #29 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #19 (2024-08-26)

Andrey Rublev

  • Current Rank: #15 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #15 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #9 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #8 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #6 (2024-08-26)

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 75.3
ELO Rating: 1464.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1681.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.2
Clay: 13.0
Grass: 12.0
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 85.7

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 84.2
ELO Rating: 1964.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1883.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.7
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 27.1
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Safiullin (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-1) hard Cincinnati 71 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-0) hard Cincinnati 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) hard Cincinnati 121 min

Andrey Rublev
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Coleman Wong (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Boyer (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Dino Prizmic (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (1-2) hard Cincinnati 137 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-0) hard Cincinnati 64 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
3
Andrey Rublev
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 2
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the US Open, held on hard courts in New York, Andrey Rublev is favored to win against Felix Auger-Aliassime. The predicted probabilities of winning stand at 59.77% for Rublev and 40.23% for Auger-Aliassime, with an expected total of 39 games played in the match.

Match Analysis

Felix Auger-Aliassime, currently ranked 27th, has a form index of 75.32 and an Elo rating of 1464.59. His fatigue level is at 348 minutes, which may impact his performance as the tournament progresses. Auger-Aliassime’s surface strength index is 13.22, and he boasts a mean serve index of 97.37 and a mean return index of 85.69. In contrast, Andrey Rublev, ranked 15th, exhibits a stronger form index of 84.16 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 1964.07, suggesting he is in better competitive shape. Rublev's fatigue is higher at 522 minutes, but he has a superior surface strength index of 15.67. Notably, Rublev's mean return index of 87.26 exceeds Auger-Aliassime's by over 5 points, which could give him a crucial edge in returning serves. In their recent performances, both players have shown resilience. Auger-Aliassime's last three matches included a victory over Alexander Zverev and a convincing win against Roman Safiullin, although he suffered a loss to Jannik Sinner in Cincinnati. Meanwhile, Rublev has been consistent, winning all three of his recent matches at the US Open against Coleman Wong, Tristan Boyer, and Dino Prizmic, demonstrating his capacity to handle pressure effectively.

Final Prediction

Rublev's higher rank, superior Elo rating, and stronger form index suggest he holds a competitive advantage in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Rublev's return game, as his ability to counter Auger-Aliassime's serves could significantly influence the outcome of the match.