London Great Britain Grass Atp 500 Round of 32

Holger Rune vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction

Holger Rune

Rank: #9
58%
VS

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #41
42%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Holger Rune

Ranking Trends

Holger Rune

  • Current Rank: #9 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #12 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #13 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #14 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #15 (2024-06-17)

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current Rank: #41 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #35 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #37 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #33 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #35 (2024-06-17)

Player Metrics

Holger Rune

Form Index: 73.6
ELO Rating: 2502.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1847.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.2
Clay: 20.6
Grass: 23.9
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 85.1

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 39.2
ELO Rating: 1330.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1624.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 12.5
Grass: 11.7
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Holger Rune
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Emilio Nava (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (1-2) clay Rome 224 min

Matteo Arnaldi
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (0-2) grass Stuttgart 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (0-2) clay Geneva 99 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-0) clay Geneva 112 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Holger Rune
vs
0
Matteo Arnaldi
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the ATP 500 tournament in London on grass, Holger Rune is set to face Matteo Arnaldi. The match promises to be competitive, with Rune being predicted to win with a probability of 57.56%, while Arnaldi has a 42.44% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played is set at 23.

Match Analysis

Holger Rune currently ranks 9th and boasts a strong form index of 73.60, reflecting his recent performance stability. His Elo rating stands at an impressive 2502.65, indicating high competitiveness. Rune has shown no signs of fatigue in the current tournament. His surface strength index on grass is 23.88, and he excels in serving with a mean serve index of 97.04, demonstrating a significant advantage over Arnaldi. In contrast, Matteo Arnaldi is ranked 41st with a form index of 39.24 and an Elo rating of 1330.81, indicating a gap in performance levels. Arnaldi also shows no fatigue but possesses a lower surface strength index of 11.69 and a mean serve index of 95.53, which is over 5 points lower than Rune's. In their recent performances, Rune's last three matches at Roland Garros saw him win against Quentin Halys and Emilio Nava but lose to Lorenzo Musetti. His matches were notably longer, showcasing his endurance on court. Meanwhile, Arnaldi has struggled, with his most recent match resulting in a loss to Jan-Lennard Struff on grass. His only recent win was against Felix Auger-Aliassime, which was sandwiched between two losses, indicating inconsistent form.

Final Prediction

Holger Rune's superior ranking, form, and serving capabilities provide him with a distinct edge over Matteo Arnaldi in this matchup. A key factor to monitor will be Rune's effectiveness in his service games, as his ability to maintain pressure on Arnaldi could dictate the match's outcome.