Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Hubert Hurkacz vs Martin Damm: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #55
63%
VS

Martin Damm

Rank: #177
37%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Hubert Hurkacz

Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current Rank: #55 (2026-01-19)
  • 3 Months Ago: #78 (2025-11-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #40 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #31 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #21 (2025-02-03)

Martin Damm

  • Current Rank: #177 (2026-01-19)
  • 3 Months Ago: #173 (2025-11-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #435 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1000 (None)
  • 12 Months Ago: #444 (2025-02-03)

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 36.3
ELO Rating: 783.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1752.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.1
Clay: 7.7
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 77.6
Return Rating: 25.2

Martin Damm

Form Index: 65.8
ELO Rating: 413.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1527.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 282.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.4
Clay: 2.9
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 89.7

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) grass S Hertogenbosch 98 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Joao Fonseca (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (1-2) clay Geneva 185 min

Martin Damm
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Clement Tabur (2-1) hard Montpellier 173 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Martineau (2-0) hard Montpellier 109 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Valentin Vacherot (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Titouan Droguet (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
0
Martin Damm
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Montpellier, France (hard court, 250-level) pits Hubert Hurkacz against Martin Damm. The model favors Hurkacz to win (62.57% probability) over Damm (37.43%), with a predicted total of about 23.8 games in the match, suggesting a straight-sets outcome or a short three-setter.

Match Analysis

Hurkacz comes in as the higher-ranked player (No. 55) with an Elo of 783.21 and a form index of 36.34. He shows a very strong mean serve index (77.58) and a modest surface strength index (7.08); fatigue reads 0.0 minutes in this event, indicating freshness in tournament play. Damm, ranked 177 with an Elo of 413.80, posts a higher form index (65.76) but has accumulated 282 minutes on court in the event, reflected in his fatigue metric. His surface strength index is lower (4.39). There is a clear serving/return contrast: Damm’s mean serve index (95.82) is substantially higher than Hurkacz’s (difference >5), and his mean return index (89.66) far exceeds Hurkacz’s return number (25.18). Over their last three matches, Hurkacz recorded two wins and a loss (a recent straight-sets loss at the Australian Open to Ethan Quinn after earlier wins), while Damm has three consecutive wins, including two in Montpellier; those wins come with long court time, matching the fatigue value. These metrics set up a matchup between Hurkacz’s overall class and freshness versus Damm’s hot form, elite serve numbers and strong returning figures.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this contest is moderate: the model’s predicted aces total is 8.89 for the match. Expected double faults sit at 6.37. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are lower than on grass yet higher than on clay; this surface produces a balanced serving environment. Given Damm’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to drive a larger share of the predicted aces, while Hurkacz’s serve strength still contributes to a non-trivial ace count; expected double faults reflect some risk from both servers under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hurkacz’s combination of higher ranking, superior Elo and tournament freshness gives him the edge in this projection. The key factor to watch is how Damm’s serving and returning firepower holds up physically—his high serve/return indices versus accumulated fatigue will likely determine how competitive the match becomes.

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