London Great Britain Grass Atp 500 Round of 16

Alexei Popyrin vs Jack Draper Prediction

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #21
37%
VS

Jack Draper

Rank: #6
63%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Jack Draper

Ranking Trends

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current Rank: #21 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #26 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #24 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #24 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #48 (2024-06-17)

Jack Draper

  • Current Rank: #6 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #7 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #15 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #20 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #31 (2024-06-17)

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 58.8
ELO Rating: 1506.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1625.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 151.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.4
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 14.0
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 87.1

Jack Draper

Form Index: 74.8
ELO Rating: 2624.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1699.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 77.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.3
Clay: 19.8
Grass: 23.1
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-1) grass London 151 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Zizou Bergs (1-2) grass S Hertogenbosch 182 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Jack Draper
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-0) grass London 77 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Gael Monfils (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Mattia Bellucci (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexei Popyrin
vs
1
Jack Draper
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 16 clash in London features Alexei Popyrin facing off against Jack Draper on grass courts. With Draper holding a 62.52% probability of winning compared to Popyrin's 37.48%, the match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 23 games played.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 21, Alexei Popyrin has a form index of 58.84 and an Elo rating of 1506.30. His cumulative fatigue stands at 151 minutes, which may impact his performance. Popyrin's surface strength index of 13.99 indicates he struggles on grass compared to Draper. In contrast, Draper, ranked 6, boasts a higher form index of 74.82 and an impressive Elo rating of 2624.80, reflecting his strong recent performances. With a fatigue level of just 77 minutes and a surface strength index of 23.11, Draper appears to be in better physical condition and more adept at handling grass court challenges. When examining their recent performances, Popyrin has won one of his last three matches, recently defeating Aleksandar Vukic in a three-set encounter. However, his earlier loss to Zizou Bergs and a disappointing exit at Roland Garros highlight his inconsistency. Draper, on the other hand, comes off a solid victory against Jenson Brooksby and has shown resilience despite earlier setbacks at Roland Garros. The difference in mean serve index (Draper: 95.58 vs. Popyrin: 97.86) is minimal, though they are closely matched in return indices.

Final Prediction

Jack Draper's superior ranking, form, and lower fatigue levels provide him with a distinct advantage in this matchup. A critical factor to observe will be Draper's ability to maintain his aggressive style on serve, which could dictate the rhythm of the match.

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