London Great Britain Grass Atp 500 Round of 32

Jacob Fearnley vs Alex Bolt Prediction

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #60
71%
VS

Alex Bolt

Rank: #194
29%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Jacob Fearnley

Ranking Trends

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current Rank: #60 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #83 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #99 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #129 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #274 (2024-06-17)

Alex Bolt

  • Current Rank: #194 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #192 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #157 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #175 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #227 (2024-06-17)

Player Metrics

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 46.4
ELO Rating: 915.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1546.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 88.7

Alex Bolt

Form Index: 41.8
ELO Rating: 378.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1515.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 205.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.1
Clay: 3.0
Grass: 5.6
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 84.2

Recent Matches

Jacob Fearnley
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (1-2) grass Stuttgart 113 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (1-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexei Popyrin (0-2) clay Geneva 70 min

Alex Bolt
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (2-1) grass London 133 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jay Clarke (2-0) grass London 72 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz (1-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Mackenzie McDonald (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Yoshihito Nishioka (0-2) hard Brisbane 99 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jacob Fearnley
vs
0
Alex Bolt
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The round of 32 match at the ATP 500 tournament in London pits Jacob Fearnley against Alex Bolt on grass. Fearnley is favored to win with a probability of 71.08%, while Bolt's chances stand at 28.92%. The predicted total number of games played is estimated at 23.

Match Analysis

Jacob Fearnley, currently ranked 60, has a form index of 46.40 and an Elo rating of 915.18. His surface strength index on grass is 5.46, complemented by a mean serve index of 96.09 and a solid mean return index of 88.70, indicating his proficiency on this surface. In contrast, Alex Bolt, ranked 194, has a form index of 41.81 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 378.11. Despite a slightly better surface strength index of 5.65, Bolt's mean serve index of 95.92 and mean return index of 84.25 suggest he may struggle against Fearnley's stronger serving and returning capabilities. Recent performances reveal Fearnley faced tough competition, losing his last match against Brandon Nakashima in Stuttgart, but he did manage to win a set in that encounter. Furthermore, he secured a victory against Ugo Humbert prior to that. Conversely, Bolt has shown resilience in London, winning his last two matches, including a hard-fought battle against Christopher O'Connell. However, his recent fatigue level of 205 minutes on court could impact his performance against a fresher opponent like Fearnley, who has no accumulated fatigue.

Final Prediction

Fearnley's superior rankings, combined with his higher serve and return indices, provide him a notable advantage going into this match. Additionally, Bolt's accumulated fatigue could play a crucial role, potentially affecting his stamina and performance in key moments of the game. Observing how Bolt manages his energy levels will be pivotal in determining the outcome.