Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Jakub Mensik vs Nicolas Jarry Prediction

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #17
65%
VS

Nicolas Jarry

Rank: #100
35%
Expected Total Games: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Player Metrics

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 44.6
ELO Rating: 1373.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1625.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.8
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 8.3
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 87.5

Nicolas Jarry

Form Index: 37.5
ELO Rating: 1114.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1644.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.7
Clay: 9.0
Grass: 10.9
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 83.9

Recent Matches

Jakub Mensik

  • Last Match: vs Luca Nardi (0-2) hard Cincinnati 42 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Cincinnati 72 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) hard Toronto 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Tristan Boyer (2-0) hard Toronto 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Flavio Cobolli (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Nicolas Jarry

  • Last Match: vs Kamil Majchrzak (0-2) hard Winston Salem 99 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Pedro Martinez (1-2) hard Cincinnati 152 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-2) clay Kitzbuhel 145 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jakub Mensik
vs
0
Nicolas Jarry
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the 2025 US Open, Jakub Mensik is set to face Nicolas Jarry on hard courts in New York. With a predicted win probability of 65.12% for Mensik and 34.88% for Jarry, the anticipated total number of games played is 38.0.

Match Analysis

Jakub Mensik, currently ranked 17, boasts a form index of 44.61 and an Elo rating of 1373.90, indicating a strong competitive edge. His surface strength index of 14.82 suggests he performs well on hard surfaces, which is further supported by a high mean serve index of 97.40 and a mean return index of 87.54. Conversely, Nicolas Jarry, ranked 100, has a lower form index of 37.55 and an Elo rating of 1114.78. His surface strength index is notably lower at 9.72, along with a mean serve index of 95.79 and a return index of 83.95. The differences in both serve and return indices exceed 5 points, indicating Mensik's superior proficiency in these areas. In their recent performances, Mensik has struggled, losing two of his last three matches, including a recent defeat against Luca Nardi in Cincinnati. However, he did secure a victory against Ethan Quinn in a prior match, showcasing his capability to perform well under pressure. Jarry, on the other hand, has also faced setbacks, with losses in his last three matches, including a recent disappointing performance against Kamil Majchrzak at Winston-Salem. This trend indicates both players have been inconsistent, but Mensik's recent win provides him with a slight psychological advantage.

Final Prediction

Jakub Mensik's overall statistical edge, particularly in serve and return capabilities, positions him as the favored player in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be how Mensik manages to leverage his serve against Jarry, especially given both players' recent form and performance patterns.

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