Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublik Prediction

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #1
77%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #24
23%
Predicted Games Played: 34.0
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

Player Metrics

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 80.8
ELO Rating: 11319.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2169.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 98.9
Clay: 97.8
Grass: 98.9
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 89.2

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 84.2
ELO Rating: 1852.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1748.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.8
Clay: 14.3
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Jannik Sinner

  • Last Match: vs Denis Shapovalov (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexei Popyrin (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-1) hard Cincinnati 23 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (2-0) hard Cincinnati 86 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (1-0) hard Cincinnati 71 min

Alexander Bublik

  • Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tristan Schoolkate (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Arthur Cazaux (2-0) clay Kitzbuhel 84 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Botic Van De Zandschulp (2-0) clay Kitzbuhel 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alexander Shevchenko (2-0) clay Kitzbuhel 75 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Jannik Sinner
vs
1
Alexander Bublik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the US Open, Jannik Sinner faces Alexander Bublik on the hard courts of New York. Sinner, ranked 1, is favored to win with a probability of 77.30%, while Bublik, ranked 24, has a 22.70% chance of victory. The match is predicted to feature a total of 34 games.

Match Analysis

Jannik Sinner boasts an impressive form index of 80.78 and an Elo rating of 11319.28, indicating his dominance in the current season. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament is at 348 minutes, which is significant but manageable at this stage. Sinner's surface strength index is exceptionally high at 98.88, showcasing his proficiency on hard courts. His serve and return indices are also strong, with a mean serve index of 97.60 and a mean return index of 89.18. The difference in both serve and return indices compared to Bublik is noteworthy, with Sinner outperforming him by more than 5 points in each category. Alexander Bublik, while displaying a respectable form index of 84.24 and an Elo rating of 1852.23, is still significantly behind Sinner in terms of hard court capability, as indicated by his surface strength index of only 10.77. Bublik's recent performances include two victories at the US Open, but his matches were tightly contested, as evidenced by his last match against Tommy Paul, where he won 3-2 in sets. His mean serve index of 95.50 and mean return index of 86.43 indicate he is competitive, but he faces an uphill battle against Sinner's superior statistics.

Final Prediction

Jannik Sinner's combination of rank, form, and superior performance metrics gives him a distinct advantage over Alexander Bublik. A key factor to monitor during the match will be Sinner's serve effectiveness, as his high serve index could dictate the pace and rhythm of the encounter.