Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Learner Tien vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Learner Tien

Rank: #52
38%
VS

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #18
62%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Ranking Trends

Learner Tien

  • Current Rank: #52 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #67 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #66 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #122 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #148 (2024-09-30)

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current Rank: #18 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #9 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #8 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #5 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #5 (2024-09-30)

Player Metrics

Learner Tien

Form Index: 62.4
ELO Rating: 1253.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1645.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 309.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.1
Clay: 4.6
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 88.1

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 59.4
ELO Rating: 3109.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2077.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 241.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.1
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 41.0
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Learner Tien
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-1) hard Beijing 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (2-0) hard Beijing 73 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-1) hard Beijing 135 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Valentin Royer (1-2) hard Hangzhou 158 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Giulio Zeppieri (2-0) hard Hangzhou 73 min

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (2-0) hard Beijing 82 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) hard Beijing 84 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) hard Beijing 75 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (1-2) hard Hangzhou 191 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Nishesh Basavareddy (2-0) hard Hangzhou 75 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Learner Tien
vs
0
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The semifinals of the ATP 500 tournament in Beijing present an intriguing matchup between Learner Tien and Daniil Medvedev on hard court. With a predicted total of 23 games, Medvedev is favored to win with a probability of 61.81%, while Tien holds a 38.19% chance of victory.

Match Analysis

Learner Tien, currently ranked 52, showcases a solid form index of 62.38 and an Elo rating of 1253.92. His cumulative fatigue of 309 minutes from the tournament indicates he has been actively competing, which could affect his performance. Tien's surface strength index stands at 10.08, reflecting his adaptability on hard courts, while his mean serve index of 96.04 and mean return index of 88.15 suggest a balanced game, although he will need to elevate his performance against a higher-ranked opponent. Daniil Medvedev, ranked 18, comes into this match with a slightly lower form index of 59.45 but a significantly higher Elo rating of 3109.90, indicating his experience and skill level. His fatigue level is lower at 241 minutes, suggesting he might be in better physical condition. Medvedev's surface strength index is notably higher at 30.12, which gives him a distinct advantage. Although his mean serve index is 95.24, his return index of 87.98 is close to Tien’s, showing he can compete effectively in both aspects of the game.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and greater surface strength index provide him a competitive edge over Learner Tien. Additionally, Tien's accumulated fatigue could play a crucial role in the match, making his stamina an essential factor to monitor.