Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Lorenzo Sonego vs Tristan Schoolkate Prediction

Lorenzo Sonego

Rank: #35
66%
VS

Tristan Schoolkate

Rank: #97
34%
Predicted Games Played: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Sonego

Ranking Trends

Lorenzo Sonego

  • Current Rank: #35 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #44 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #35 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #53 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #48 (2024-08-26)

Tristan Schoolkate

  • Current Rank: #97 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #128 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #133 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #169 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #193 (2024-08-26)

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Sonego

Form Index: 41.1
ELO Rating: 1060.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1595.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 9.6
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 84.7

Tristan Schoolkate

Form Index: 40.5
ELO Rating: 525.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1535.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.9
Clay: 2.7
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Sonego
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jaume Munar (1-2) hard Winston Salem 141 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Stefan Dostanic (2-1) hard Winston Salem 173 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Cincinnati 127 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Cincinnati 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Andrey Rublev (1-2) hard Toronto 152 min

Tristan Schoolkate
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Nishesh Basavareddy (0-2) hard Winston Salem 96 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Cannon Kingsley (2-1) hard Winston Salem 130 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Colton Smith (0-2) hard Cincinnati 97 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Arnaldi (1-2) hard Toronto 129 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (2-0) hard Toronto 92 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lorenzo Sonego
vs
0
Tristan Schoolkate
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The US Open, a prestigious Grand Slam tournament, sees Lorenzo Sonego face off against Tristan Schoolkate in the Round of 128. With a hard court surface in New York, Sonego is predicted to secure a victory with a winning probability of 66.29%, while Schoolkate holds a 33.71% chance of success. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 38 games played.

Match Analysis

Lorenzo Sonego, currently ranked 35th, boasts a form index of 41.13 and an Elo rating of 1060.83. His surface strength index stands at 9.87, indicating strong performance on hard courts. Notably, Sonego's mean serve index of 97.51 is significantly higher than Schoolkate's 95.80, illustrating his superior serving capability. In contrast, Tristan Schoolkate, ranked 97th, has a form index of 40.53 and an Elo rating of 525.14. His surface strength index is notably lower at 4.86, which could impact his effectiveness during the match. The mean return index for Schoolkate is 86.76, slightly better than Sonego's 84.68, but this advantage is mitigated by Sonego's stronger serve. In their recent performances, Sonego's last three matches showcase a mixed bag with one victory and two losses, including a tough match against Jaume Munar where he lost in a close contest. Schoolkate also experienced a similar trend, with one win against Cannon Kingsley but losses against both Nishesh Basavareddy and Colton Smith. Both players enter the match with no cumulative fatigue, suggesting they are physically prepared.

Final Prediction

Lorenzo Sonego's higher ranking, superior serve index, and better recent form provide him with a distinct advantage in this matchup. One key factor to monitor will be Sonego's ability to maintain consistency in his serve, as this could dictate the flow and outcome of the match.