Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Luca Nardi vs Flavio Cobolli Prediction

Luca Nardi

Rank: #95
32%
VS

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #34
68%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

Player Metrics

Luca Nardi

Form Index: 28.6
ELO Rating: 674.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1545.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.4
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 87.3

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 47.4
ELO Rating: 1236.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1572.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.2
Clay: 12.6
Grass: 12.8
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Luca Nardi

  • Last Match: vs Hugo Gaston (0-2) clay Madrid 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Manas Dhamne (2-0) clay Madrid 75 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 89 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Marton Fucsovics (0-2) clay Bucharest 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Miami 112 min

Flavio Cobolli

  • Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) clay Madrid 102 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Holger Rune (1-0) clay Madrid 43 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Fabian Marozsan (2-0) clay Madrid 115 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexander Shevchenko (1-2) clay Munich 157 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Arthur Fils (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 70 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Luca Nardi
vs
0
Flavio Cobolli
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Luca Nardi and Flavio Cobolli at the Rome Masters 1000 tournament promises to be an exciting encounter on clay. With Cobolli holding a significant advantage, the prediction favors him as the likely winner, boasting a 68.12% probability of victory compared to Nardi’s 31.88%. The anticipated total number of games played is estimated at 22.

Match Analysis

Luca Nardi, currently ranked 95, has a form index of 28.64 and an Elo rating of 674.88. Although his surface strength index is relatively low at 5.75, he has shown a mean serve index of 96.29 and a mean return index of 87.33. On the other hand, Flavio Cobolli, ranked 34, exhibits a much stronger form index of 47.38 and an Elo rating of 1235.97, coupled with a surface strength index of 12.57. Cobolli's mean serve index is slightly lower at 95.84, but his mean return index of 88.09 gives him a competitive edge. The difference in their mean serve and return indices, while not exceeding 5 points, indicates a closely matched serving ability, but Cobolli's stronger overall metrics position him favorably. In their recent performances, Nardi has struggled, losing two of his last three matches, including a defeat against Hugo Gaston at the Madrid tournament. His only win came against Manas Dhamne, where he showcased his potential. Conversely, Cobolli has had a mixed bag, winning two out of his last three matches, including a notable victory over Holger Rune. His recent form suggests he is finding his rhythm on clay, despite a loss to Brandon Nakashima in his last outing.

Final Prediction

Flavio Cobolli's superior ranking, better recent form, and higher Elo rating provide him with a distinct advantage heading into this match. A key factor to watch will be Cobolli’s ability to leverage his surface strength and execute effective returns, which could dictate the pace of the match.

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