Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Marton Fucsovics vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

Marton Fucsovics

Rank: #94
51%
VS

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #29
49%
Predicted Games Played: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Marton Fucsovics

Ranking Trends

Marton Fucsovics

  • Current Rank: #94 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #124 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #88 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #103 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #81 (2024-08-26)

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current Rank: #29 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #31 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #32 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #56 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #105 (2024-08-26)

Player Metrics

Marton Fucsovics

Form Index: 61.4
ELO Rating: 907.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1632.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.4
Clay: 7.2
Grass: 6.4
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 87.0

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 34.5
ELO Rating: 1061.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1589.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.1
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 9.7
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Marton Fucsovics
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Botic Van De Zandschulp (2-0) hard Winston Salem 111 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-0) hard Winston Salem 100 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) hard Winston Salem 93 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-1) hard Winston Salem 143 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (2-0) hard Winston Salem 81 min

Denis Shapovalov
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Luca Nardi (1-2) hard Cincinnati 148 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (0-2) hard Toronto 94 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-0) hard Los Cabos 75 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Los Cabos 66 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Schoolkate (2-0) hard Los Cabos 77 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Marton Fucsovics
vs
1
Denis Shapovalov
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The first-round match at the 2025 US Open will see Marton Fucsovics take on Denis Shapovalov on hard courts in New York. The match is expected to be closely contested, with Fucsovics slightly favored to win at a probability of 50.90%, compared to Shapovalov's 49.10%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is 37.0.

Match Analysis

Marton Fucsovics, currently ranked 94, has a form index of 61.41 and an Elo rating of 907.17. His fatigue level stands at 0.0, indicating he is well-rested. With a surface strength index of 7.36, he shows solid performance potential on hard courts. Fucsovics boasts a mean serve index of 96.32 and a mean return index of 87.00, giving him an edge in both serving and returning aspects of the game. Denis Shapovalov, ranked 29, has a lower form index of 34.46 and a higher Elo rating of 1060.98, suggesting he has the capability to perform better on paper. His surface strength index of 13.13 reflects good adaptability on hard courts, but his mean serve index of 95.67 is only marginally lower than Fucsovics, and his mean return index of 85.98 is slightly lower as well. In their recent performances, Fucsovics has demonstrated strong form, winning all three of his last matches in straight sets at the Winston-Salem tournament. In contrast, Shapovalov has struggled, losing two out of his last three matches, including a recent defeat against Luca Nardi in Cincinnati, where he managed only one set win. This discrepancy in form could heavily influence the outcome of their match.

Final Prediction

Fucsovics has the upper hand based on his recent strong performances and superior form index, as well as his better serving and returning metrics. A key factor to watch will be how Fucsovics leverages his serving capabilities against Shapovalov's return game, especially given the close nature of their predicted probabilities.