Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Matteo Arnaldi vs Francisco Cerundolo Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #62
41%
VS

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #19
59%
Predicted Games Played: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

Ranking Trends

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current Rank: #62 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #36 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #33 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #37 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #30 (2024-08-26)

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current Rank: #19 (2025-08-18)
  • 3 Months Ago: #18 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #26 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #30 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #29 (2024-08-26)

Player Metrics

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 24.3
ELO Rating: 1149.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1611.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.4
Clay: 12.5
Grass: 10.4
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 87.6

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 43.9
ELO Rating: 1438.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1708.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.4
Clay: 12.4
Grass: 11.7
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 89.3

Recent Matches

Matteo Arnaldi
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Winston Salem 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (1-2) hard Cincinnati 177 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (1-2) hard Toronto 166 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Schoolkate (2-1) hard Toronto 129 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Washington 101 min

Francisco Cerundolo
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Toronto 51 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-0) hard Toronto 109 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-1) hard Toronto 178 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Taberner (1-2) clay Umag 200 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (1-2) clay Bastad 153 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Arnaldi
vs
0
Francisco Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the first round of the 2025 US Open held on hard courts in New York, Matteo Arnaldi is set to face Francisco Cerundolo. The match is predicted to be competitive, with Cerundolo favored to win, holding a probability of 58.60% compared to Arnaldi's 41.40%. The anticipated total number of games played in this encounter is 36.

Match Analysis

Francisco Cerundolo, currently ranked 19, boasts a superior Elo rating of 1438.04 and a form index of 43.88, indicating a strong competitive edge. His surface strength index of 13.44 suggests he is well-adapted to hard court play. In contrast, Matteo Arnaldi, ranked 62, has a lower Elo rating of 1148.98 and a form index of 24.31, which reflects his recent struggles. While both players have a similar mean serve index, Arnaldi slightly edges out with 96.91 compared to Cerundolo’s 95.53. However, Cerundolo has a better mean return index of 89.31 versus Arnaldi's 87.60, indicating a stronger return game. Looking at their recent performances, Arnaldi has faced tough opponents, losing his last three matches, including a straight-set defeat to Botic van de Zandschulp in Winston-Salem. In contrast, Cerundolo has had mixed results but managed a victory against Tomas Martin Etcheverry and won a match against Jaume Munar, showcasing his ability to compete effectively on hard surfaces.

Final Prediction

Cerundolo's higher rank, better recent form, and superior return capabilities give him a significant advantage heading into this match. A key factor to observe will be Cerundolo's ability to capitalize on his return game, which could set the tone for the match and potentially dictate the pace against Arnaldi.