Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Pablo Carreno Busta: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #60
64%
VS

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #94
36%
Expected Total Games: 22.7
Predicted Winner: Miomir Kecmanovic

Ranking Trends

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Current Rank: #60 (2026-01-19)
  • 3 Months Ago: #54 (2025-11-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #49 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #47 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #55 (2025-02-03)

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Current Rank: #94 (2026-01-19)
  • 3 Months Ago: #91 (2025-11-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #93 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #98 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #149 (2025-02-03)

Player Metrics

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 5.7
ELO Rating: 942.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1592.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.2
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 7.7
Serve Rating: 73.6
Return Rating: 74.7

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 17.1
ELO Rating: 677.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1530.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.2
Clay: 6.0
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 92.2

Recent Matches

Miomir Kecmanovic
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Valentin Vacherot (0-2) hard Adelaide 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexandre Muller (0-2) hard Hong Kong 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (1-2) hard Paris 146 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-1) hard Paris 141 min

Pablo Carreno Busta
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Vit Kopriva (1-2) hard Auckland 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Grigor Dimitrov (0-2) hard Brisbane 67 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Cazaux (1-0) hard Brisbane 46 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Mattia Bellucci (2-1) hard Brisbane 143 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Miomir Kecmanovic
vs
0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match at the Montpellier hard-court ATP 250 in France pits Miomir Kecmanovic against Pablo Carreno Busta. The model favors Kecmanovic to win (63.90% vs 36.10%) and projects a relatively short contest with an expected total of 22.7 games.

Match Analysis

Kecmanovic enters ranked 60 with an Elo of 942.47, a low form index (5.73) but solid hard-court surface strength (6.21) and balanced serve/return profiles (mean serve 73.6, mean return 74.7). He shows no accumulated fatigue in this tournament. Carreno Busta is ranked 94 with a lower Elo (677.24) but a higher form index (17.08) and a similar surface strength (6.22). There is a notable gap in serve and return metrics: Carreno Busta’s mean serve (96.81) exceeds Kecmanovic’s by over 23 points, and his mean return (92.22) is about 17.6 points higher, an edge that should influence short, decisive rallies. Recent results suggest both players have struggled coming into Montpellier. Kecmanovic has lost his last three matches on hard courts, including a five-set loss at the Australian Open and straight-set defeats in Adelaide and Hong Kong. Carreno Busta likewise has three straight defeats, with a five-set loss at the Australian Open and earlier exits in Auckland and Brisbane. Those results underline inconsistent match outcomes, though the raw serve/return indices give Carreno Busta clear single-match tools to pressure service games.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.7 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 16.86 total, and the predicted aces skew toward Carreno Busta due to his substantially higher serve index. On a medium-paced hard court—where aces are moderate—the predicted aces reflect both players’ abilities to produce service winners without the extremes seen on grass. For double faults prediction, the expected double faults are 5.74; Carreno Busta’s powerful serving profile could raise both the predicted aces and the expected double faults if he plays aggressively.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kecmanovic’s higher Elo and slightly better recent surface-level metrics underpin the projection despite his weak form index; the model weights his overall matchup edge. The key factor to watch is Carreno Busta’s serve-return combination: if his serve dominance converts to free points, it will be decisive.

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