Us Open
NY, U.S.A.
Hard
Grand Slam
Semifinals
Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Novak Djokovic
Rank: #7
21%
VS
Carlos Alcaraz
Rank: #2
79%
Predicted Games Played:
35.0
Predicted Winner:
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking Trends
Novak Djokovic
- Current Rank: #7 (2025-08-18)
- 3 Months Ago: #6 (2025-05-26)
- 6 Months Ago: #7 (2025-02-24)
- 9 Months Ago: #7 (2024-11-25)
- 12 Months Ago: #2 (2024-08-26)
Carlos Alcaraz
- Current Rank: #2 (2025-08-18)
- 3 Months Ago: #2 (2025-05-26)
- 6 Months Ago: #3 (2025-02-24)
- 9 Months Ago: #3 (2024-11-25)
- 12 Months Ago: #3 (2024-08-26)
Player Metrics
Novak Djokovic
Form Index:
96.9
ELO Rating:
3511.9
Glicko2 Rating:
2548.7
Current Fatigue (minutes):
696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
31.3
Clay:
31.2
Grass:
33.4
Serve Rating:
96.3
Return Rating:
87.5
Carlos Alcaraz
Form Index:
91.0
ELO Rating:
6790.3
Glicko2 Rating:
2362.0
Current Fatigue (minutes):
696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
55.8
Clay:
60.8
Grass:
58.9
Serve Rating:
94.1
Return Rating:
86.8
Recent Matches
Novak Djokovic
- Last Match: vs Jan-Lennard Struff (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Zachary Svajda (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Learner Tien (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
Carlos Alcaraz
- Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Mattia Bellucci (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Reilly Opelka (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (1-0) hard Cincinnati 23 min
Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)
1
Novak Djokovic
vs
1
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1
Key Prediction Insights
In the highly anticipated semifinals of the US Open, Novak Djokovic faces off against Carlos Alcaraz on hard courts in New York. The match is expected to be fiercely competitive, but statistical analysis gives Alcaraz the upper hand, with a predicted win probability of 79.21%, compared to Djokovic's 20.79%. The total number of games played is anticipated to be around 35.
Match Analysis
Novak Djokovic, currently ranked 7th, boasts a solid form index of 96.92 and an Elo rating of 3511.89. His fatigue level stands at 696 minutes, reflecting a challenging tournament thus far. On the other hand, Carlos Alcaraz, ranked 2nd, has an impressive form index of 91.01 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 6790.31. Both players share the same cumulative fatigue of 696 minutes, but Alcaraz’s surface strength index of 55.84, compared to Djokovic's 31.25, indicates a stronger adaptability to the hard court surface.
In their recent performances, Djokovic has shown resilience, winning all his matches in straight sets against opponents like Jan-Lennard Struff and Cameron Norrie. However, Alcaraz has been equally dominant, winning his last three matches without dropping a set, effectively overpowering opponents such as Arthur Rinderknech and Luciano Darderi. Notably, Djokovic's mean serve index of 96.34 is slightly superior to Alcaraz's 94.13, but the difference is not substantial. Both players have comparable return indices, with Djokovic at 87.48 and Alcaraz at 86.76.
Final Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz's higher Elo rating, superior surface strength index, and recent dominant performances give him a notable edge heading into this semifinal clash. A key factor to watch will be Alcaraz's ability to maintain his aggressive play while managing fatigue, which could be pivotal in determining the match's outcome.