Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #25
34%
VS

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #8
66%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

Ranking Trends

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current Rank: #25 (2025-10-20)
  • 3 Months Ago: #29 (2025-07-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #18 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #12 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #11 (2024-10-21)

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Current Rank: #8 (2025-10-20)
  • 3 Months Ago: #7 (2025-07-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #11 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #15 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #17 (2024-10-21)

Player Metrics

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 12.2
ELO Rating: 1741.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1822.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.5
Clay: 23.4
Grass: 22.9
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 85.0

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 47.2
ELO Rating: 1975.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1722.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.2
Clay: 24.0
Grass: 22.2
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Stefanos Tsitsipas
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Yunchaokete Bu (0-2) hard Winston Salem 88 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (1-2) hard Cincinnati 159 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-0) hard Cincinnati 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Christopher O'Connell (1-2) hard Toronto 121 min

Lorenzo Musetti
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (0-2) hard Brussels 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-0) hard Brussels 97 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Shanghai 85 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (2-0) hard Shanghai 131 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-0) hard Shanghai 87 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
vs
2
Lorenzo Musetti
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 2
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Lorenzo Musetti at the Vienna tournament promises to be an exciting contest. Set in Austria on a hard surface during the round of 32 of an ATP 500 event, Musetti is favored to win with a probability of 65.99%, while Tsitsipas stands at 34.01%. The predicted total number of games played is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 25th, Stefanos Tsitsipas has a form index of 12.2 and an Elo rating of 1741.7. His cumulative fatigue is at 0 minutes, indicating he has not played long matches recently, but his surface strength index of 14.5 suggests he has struggled on hard courts. Tsitsipas has shown weaknesses in his recent performances, losing all three of his last matches, including a disappointing loss at the US Open to Daniel Altmaier. His mean serve index is 97.3, while his mean return index is 85.0, showing he has a solid serve but could benefit from improving his return game. In contrast, Lorenzo Musetti is ranked 8th, with a form index of 47.2 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 1975.8. Also at 0 minutes of cumulative fatigue, Musetti's surface strength index is slightly lower at 12.2, but he has managed to secure a victory in two out of his last three matches, indicating better form. His mean serve index is 95.4, and his mean return index is 87.9, demonstrating a stronger return game compared to Tsitsipas with a 2.9 point difference in return index, which could play a crucial role in their matchup.

Final Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti holds the edge due to his superior recent form and higher Elo rating, along with a better return game which could exploit Tsitsipas's struggles. A key factor to observe will be Musetti's ability to capitalize on Tsitsipas's serve, potentially dictating the pace of the match and determining the outcome.