La Liga 2025-2026: Girona vs Celta Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Girona

Home Team
19%
VS

Celta

Away Team
65%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 24.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 25 20 1 4 67 25 42 61
2 Real Madrid 25 19 3 3 54 21 33 60
3 Villarreal 25 16 3 6 47 27 20 51
4 Ath Madrid 25 14 6 5 42 23 19 48
5 Betis 25 11 9 5 40 30 10 42
6 Celta 25 9 10 6 34 27 7 37
7 Espanol 25 10 5 10 31 37 -6 35
8 Betis 25 10 4 11 29 35 -6 34
9 Osasuna 25 9 6 10 30 29 1 33
10 Sociedad 25 8 8 9 37 38 -1 32
11 Girona 25 7 9 9 26 40 -14 30
12 Sevilla 25 8 5 12 32 39 -7 29
13 Getafe 25 8 5 12 20 29 -9 29
14 Alaves 25 7 6 12 23 32 -9 27
15 Vallecano 24 6 8 10 22 31 -9 26
16 Valencia 25 6 8 11 26 39 -13 26
17 Elche 25 5 10 10 32 37 -5 25
18 Mallorca 25 6 6 13 29 41 -12 24
19 Levante 25 4 6 15 26 44 -18 18
20 Oviedo 24 3 8 13 16 39 -23 17

Recent Trends

Girona D W D L D

  • Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 1)

Celta W D L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Girona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.41
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.70
# Clean Sheets: 0

Celta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.48
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.92
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Celta are favoured to take all three points, with a 65.0% probability of an away win against a Girona side given just a 19.0% chance at home, while the draw stands at 16.0%. The model leans towards a tight affair with an under 2.5 goals prediction (49.0% for over, so a slight edge to the under), reflecting both teams’ recent scorelines. In the table, Celta are pushing for Europe in 6th on 37 points, while Girona sit 11th on 30, looking more over their shoulder than upwards.

Match Analysis

Girona come into this on a quietly encouraging three‑match unbeaten run: an eye‑catching 2-1 home win over Barcelona sandwiched between hard‑fought draws away to Sevilla (1-1) and Alaves (2-2). They’ve shown resilience and a capacity to rise to big occasions, but the underlying numbers hint at fragility: 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded on average in their last five, with 1.412 expected goals for but a higher 1.702 xG against and no clean sheets in that spell. They are competing, but often living dangerously. Celta’s recent run has been more controlled, even if the results have been mixed: a solid 2-0 home win over Mallorca, a 2-2 draw away at Espanyol and a narrow 2-1 home loss to Osasuna. Over the last five matches they average only 0.8 goals scored but concede just 1.0, and the advanced metrics are in their favour: 1.476 xG created per game against only 0.918 xG allowed, plus two clean sheets. That profile – stronger defensively, steadily generating chances – explains why the visitors are so strongly favoured despite playing away.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
Celta
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points towards an under 2.5 outcome, even though the probability for over 2.5 goals is 49.0%, suggesting a very fine margin. In terms of recent form, 2 out of 3 of Girona’s matches (2-2 vs Alaves, 2-1 vs Barcelona) went over 2.5, with the Sevilla draw (1-1) staying under; for Celta, 2 of their last 3 also went over (2-2 at Espanyol, 2-1 vs Osasuna) and only the 2-0 win over Mallorca matched the under 2.5 prediction. The case for a low‑scoring game leans more on the averages: neither side is free‑scoring (1.0 vs 0.8 goals per game recently), and both xG profiles suggest tight margins rather than a shoot‑out, which adds some caution to any over 2.5 prediction.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Girona
Corners in last 5 matches
Celta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.13, pointing to a moderately busy game in wide areas. Girona’s last three outings produced corner counts of 6-7, 3-7 and 7-5, regularly breaking into double figures overall, while Celta’s matches showed 7-2, 2-2 and 7-3 – again generally healthy numbers. Given both teams’ willingness to attack, especially from the flanks, the corners prediction around nine suggests sustained but not relentless pressure from Celta, with Girona looking to break and force their own set‑piece situations.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Girona
Shots in last 5 matches
Celta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure sits at 23.98, so roughly 24 attempts in total, which fits with both teams’ recent patterns. Girona’s last three games saw them take 10, 13 and 15 shots while facing 17, 27 and 11; Celta, meanwhile, fired 20, 14 and 18 attempts while conceding just 1, 9 and 8. That volume matches their xG profiles and supports a shots prediction of around the mid‑20s, with Celta likely edging the shot count on the back of their more efficient chance creation.

Final Prediction

Celta’s superior defensive numbers, stronger xG balance and higher league position give them a clear statistical edge, even away from home. Girona’s recent scalping of Barcelona shows they can upset the odds, but their inability to keep clean sheets may prove costly. The key factor to watch will be whether Celta’s controlled, chance‑heavy style can turn territorial dominance into goals against a Girona side that thrives in chaotic, transition‑heavy games.

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