Serie A Power Rankings

Power Rankings Overview

Inter still sit on their own tier: an ELO of 1741 and Glicko-2 of 1778, both with top-ranked attacks and defenses, scream “worthy champions” even after a slight ratings dip. Behind them, the race for second in pure strength is a knife fight, with Roma, Como, Juventus, Napoli and Milan bunched tightly in the 1580–1645 band. The two models broadly agree on the top dog, but the order of the chasing pack is far from settled.

The Agreed Elite

Inter’s +54 goal difference from 86 scored and only 32 conceded matches the numbers: ATK 1680 and DEF 1560 in ELO, backed by a Glicko-2 attack of 1691 and defense of 1634. That is the league’s clearest dual-platform endorsement of quality, with an RD of 84 making their rating relatively stable. Roma’s rise is also anchored in both models: matching 1627s in ELO and G2, with a stingy defense (31 conceded) and G2 DEF 1593, signals a side that wins with structure as much as talent.

Where the Models Disagree

The biggest argument between the algorithms sits in mid-table. Fiorentina are ELO’s ninth-best team at 1533, but Glicko-2 pushes them down to 1472 and only twelfth, a three-spot drop; their RD of 76 and big G2 jump of +26.5 tell you this is a volatile, hard-to-pin side whose rating is still chasing their recent uptick. Roma are the poster child for emerging form: ELO has nudged them to second only recently with +15.2, but G2 had them there earlier and still likes them, matching the 1627 while ranking them four spots higher than their ELO place not long ago. Lecce share that story lower down – ELO 1435 versus a more cautious G2 of 1392 and a +1 rank diff – suggesting Glicko-2 is slower to buy their late-season revival.

Form Watch

Fiorentina and Cremonese are the weekend’s big climbers. Viola gained +45.6 ELO and +26.5 G2 off the back of improved performances that have dragged a leaky defense (49 conceded) towards respectability. Cremonese, still down in 18th, just posted a similar +45.5 ELO and +26.0 G2 jump, hinting that their current level is far stronger than 34 points suggest.

Relegation Watch

Pisa and Verona sit marooned at the bottom, and the models agree: Pisa’s ELO at 1244 and G2 at 1239, with a horrific 25–69 goal record, mark them as the league’s weakest by some distance. Verona aren’t far ahead at 1312 ELO and 1275 G2; even with a small ratings bump, 25 goals scored tells its own story. The more interesting case is Cremonese at 1386 ELO and 1341 G2 — still relegation-threatened, but the ratings surge suggests they’re playing at a mid-table level just a bit too late.