Bundesliga Power Rankings
Two rating models, one table. ELO measures accumulated strength. Glicko-2 adds uncertainty — the RD column shows how confident the model is. The Rank Δ column reveals where the two systems disagree.
Reading Guide
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | ELO | G2 | RD | ELO± | G2± | Rank Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 33 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 117 | 35 | +82 | 86 | 1774 | 1886 | 106 | +4.3 | +3.7 | 0 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 68 | 34 | +34 | 70 | 1628 | 1711 | 88 | +7.7 | +7.1 | 0 |
| 3 | Stuttgart | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 69 | 47 | +22 | 61 | 1620 | 1646 | 82 | +21.8 | +15.9 | +1 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 33 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 65 | 43 | +22 | 65 | 1616 | 1648 | 82 | +4.9 | +4.0 | -1 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 67 | 46 | +21 | 58 | 1592 | 1613 | 81 | -21.8 | -15.4 | +1 |
| 6 | Hoffenheim | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 65 | 48 | +17 | 61 | 1585 | 1624 | 81 | +7.4 | +5.8 | -1 |
| 7 | Augsburg | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 43 | 1545 | 1503 | 79 | +16.1 | +12.7 | 0 |
| 8 | Mainz | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 37 | 1483 | 1471 | 80 | -45.6 | -26.1 | +1 |
| 9 | Freiburg | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 47 | 56 | -9 | 44 | 1479 | 1481 | 80 | -23.2 | -18.8 | -1 |
| 10 | M'gladbach | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 35 | 1462 | 1431 | 79 | -16.1 | -12.7 | +2 |
| 11 | Hamburg | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 37 | 1461 | 1440 | 78 | +23.2 | +18.0 | 0 |
| 12 | Ein Frankfurt | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 59 | 63 | -4 | 43 | 1443 | 1459 | 78 | -7.7 | -5.6 | -2 |
| 13 | Heidenheim | 33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 26 | 1419 | 1352 | 85 | +35.5 | +26.6 | +3 |
| 14 | Union Berlin | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 58 | -18 | 36 | 1414 | 1393 | 80 | +45.6 | +26.3 | -1 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 33 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 32 | 1393 | 1367 | 78 | -7.4 | -5.4 | -1 |
| 16 | FC Koln | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 48 | 58 | -10 | 32 | 1373 | 1362 | 79 | -35.5 | -22.3 | -1 |
| 17 | Wolfsburg | 33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 26 | 1359 | 1329 | 82 | -4.3 | -2.3 | 0 |
| 18 | St Pauli | 33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 28 | 57 | -29 | 26 | 1354 | 1315 | 82 | -4.9 | -4.1 | 0 |
Bundesliga ELO Progression 2025-2026
Bundesliga Power Rankings Analysis 2025-2026
Power Rankings Overview
Bayern sit on their own planet: an ELO of 1774 and Glicko-2 of 1886, backed by a 117–35 goal difference and just one league defeat. Both models track them as clear number one, with almost no uncertainty in the hierarchy at the top. Behind them, Dortmund, Stuttgart and Leipzig form a tight chasing pack where the margins are real but small.
The Agreed Elite
Bayern are as close to a solved equation as you get: league-best attack by ELO at 1819, huge G2 cushion at 1886, and a low-enough RD of 106 that the models are confident this isn’t a hot streak, it’s baked-in dominance. Dortmund follow as the only other side in the 1700s on G2, with 1711 overall and a sturdy G2 defensive rating of 1600 underpinning 34 goals conceded.
Stuttgart and RB Leipzig round out the “agreed elite” tier. ELO puts them at 1620 and 1616, G2 at 1646 and 1648, and both systems see strong, balanced profiles: Stuttgart’s ELO attack at 1644, Leipzig’s G2 defense at 1557. These are Champions League-level numbers even if their points totals lag well behind Bayern’s 86.
Where the Models Disagree
The biggest tug of war is around Heidenheim. ELO has dragged them up to 1419 after a +35.5 surge, but G2 sits way back at 1352 with a high RD of 85 and a soft defensive number of 1367; the ratings are screaming “volatile” for a side still on 26 points and 70 goals conceded. ELO is reacting fast to recent upturn, G2 is warning that the sample is messy.
Gladbach also split opinion. ELO has them midtable at 1462, while G2 drops them to 1431 and ranks them two spots lower, with that 1502 G2 defensive mark saying “leaky” more than “unlucky.” On the flip side, Frankfurt get slightly more respect from G2 (1459) than from ELO (1443) despite conceding 63; the more conservative G2 model isn’t as harsh on their swings as ELO’s recent downgrade.
Form Watch
Heidenheim are the week’s rocket: +35.5 ELO and +26.6 G2 off the back of improved results, even though their season line still reads 6 wins, 8 draws, 19 losses. Union Berlin also trend sharply upward with +45.6 ELO and +26.3 G2, climbing to 1414 and 1393 and starting to look more like a solid lower-midtable unit than a relegation candidate. On the slide, Leverkusen’s ELO has fallen hard by 21.8 to 1592, and their G2 dip of 15.4 to 1613 underlines a team drifting away from the league’s top stratum.
Relegation Watch
The bottom three by points – Heidenheim, Wolfsburg, St Pauli – all sit in the 1350–1419 ELO band and 1315–1352 G2 range, which is genuine relegation territory. Neither system sees a hidden gem here: St Pauli’s G2 at 1315 with 28 goals scored tells you this attack is exactly as blunt as the table suggests. The only mild optimist is ELO on Heidenheim, nudging them closer to mid-pack quality, but G2’s high RD and lower rating remind us their survival odds are still fragile.
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