Bundesliga Power Rankings
Two rating models, one table. ELO measures accumulated strength. Glicko-2 adds uncertainty: the RD column shows how confident the model is. The Rank Δ column reveals where the two systems disagree.
Reading Guide
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | ELO | G2 | RD | ELO± | G2± | Rank Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 | 1583 | 1800 | 217 | +22.0 | +40.5 | 0 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 | 1568 | 1758 | 219 | +13.2 | +14.7 | 0 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 | 1564 | 1743 | 210 | +0.3 | -34.5 | 0 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 7 | 1532 | 1643 | 203 | +20.7 | +67.8 | +1 |
| 5 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 7 | 1529 | 1572 | 201 | -21.7 | -115.1 | +2 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 1526 | 1653 | 198 | +21.7 | +110.9 | -2 |
| 7 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 7 | 1516 | 1493 | 201 | +24.3 | +69.0 | +3 |
| 8 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 | 1515 | 1562 | 200 | +2.2 | +3.9 | 0 |
| 9 | Ein Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 | 1508 | 1606 | 201 | -0.3 | +30.3 | -3 |
| 10 | Schalke 04 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 | 1508 | 1517 | 197 | -2.2 | -3.7 | -1 |
| 11 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 | 1495 | 1432 | 204 | -20.7 | -68.9 | +1 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | 1482 | 1470 | 203 | +22.0 | +102.1 | -1 |
| 13 | FC Koln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 | 1467 | 1318 | 202 | -23.0 | -140.0 | +3 |
| 14 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | 1460 | 1348 | 211 | -22.0 | -38.5 | 0 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 | 1456 | 1349 | 202 | -22.0 | -100.2 | -2 |
| 16 | Hamburg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | 1452 | 1332 | 204 | +23.0 | +142.8 | -1 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | 1427 | 1220 | 211 | -13.2 | -13.9 | 0 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | 1414 | 1178 | 213 | -24.3 | -79.5 | 0 |
Bundesliga ELO Progression 2026-2027
Bundesliga Power Rankings Analysis 2026-2027
Power Rankings Overview
Dortmund are the clear early leaders. They have four wins from four, and both ELO and Glicko-2 rank them first. The models also agree on the top three, with Bayern Munich second and Freiburg third, so there is no split at the summit.
The Agreed Elite
Dortmund’s case is built on both ends of the pitch: nine goals scored and just two conceded. Bayern Munich have the league’s most prolific attack with 14 goals, while their two goals against match Dortmund’s defensive record. Freiburg have scored 12 and conceded three, making their unbeaten start look convincing rather than fortunate.
Where the Models Disagree
The sharpest gaps belong to Ein Frankfurt, Mainz and FC Koln, each with a Rank Diff of three places. Glicko-2 rates Ein Frankfurt higher than ELO does, ranking them sixth against ELO’s ninth. Their G2 rating is 1606, and its gain of 30.3 points suggests stronger recent form than their one win and two draws alone might imply.
Mainz and FC Koln rank lower in Glicko-2 than in ELO. Mainz sits seventh by ELO but around tenth by G2, while FC Koln falls from 13th to 16th. Their RD figures are 201 and 202, respectively, so neither rating is especially settled after four matches. FC Koln’s G2 drop of 140.0 points is a clear warning, while Mainz’s positive movement in both systems makes its lower G2 placement less conclusive.
Form Watch
Hamburg has the biggest G2 gain, up 142.8 points, and Paderborn is up 102.1. Werder Bremen also surged 110.9 points in G2, alongside a 21.7-point ELO rise. Mainz leads the ELO gains at 24.3, but its G2 increase is a more modest 69.0.
FC Koln is sliding hardest in G2, down 140.0, with Augsburg down 115.1. M'gladbach has the largest ELO fall at 24.3 points, and its G2 rating is also down 79.5.
Relegation Watch
Both systems put Hamburg, Union Berlin and M'gladbach in the bottom three. That fits the results: Hamburg and M'gladbach have conceded 13 and 16 goals, while Union Berlin have conceded 17 and taken only one point. Hamburg’s large rating gains offer a sign of improvement, but the standings still leave them in trouble.
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