Bundesliga Power Rankings
Two rating models, one table. ELO measures accumulated strength. Glicko-2 adds uncertainty — the RD column shows how confident the model is. The Rank Δ column reveals where the two systems disagree.
Reading Guide
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | ELO | G2 | RD | ELO± | G2± | Rank Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 25 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 92 | 24 | +68 | 66 | 1748 | 1898 | 117 | +4.2 | +3.9 | 0 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 25 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 53 | 26 | +27 | 55 | 1676 | 1770 | 100 | +9.2 | +7.1 | 0 |
| 3 | Hoffenheim | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 33 | +20 | 49 | 1603 | 1659 | 92 | +9.9 | +5.9 | 0 |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 25 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 50 | 34 | +16 | 47 | 1594 | 1624 | 94 | -1.9 | -9.4 | 0 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 25 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 48 | 34 | +14 | 47 | 1577 | 1623 | 93 | +13.8 | +11.9 | 0 |
| 6 | Leverkusen | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 48 | 32 | +16 | 44 | 1567 | 1593 | 90 | -0.1 | -2.3 | 0 |
| 7 | Ein Frankfurt | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 35 | 1510 | 1511 | 87 | +0.4 | -4.6 | 0 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 34 | 1497 | 1505 | 88 | +0.1 | +2.2 | 0 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 31 | 1493 | 1457 | 90 | -13.8 | -11.2 | 0 |
| 10 | Mainz | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 24 | 1478 | 1441 | 91 | +1.9 | +8.6 | +1 |
| 11 | Hamburg | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 29 | 1467 | 1450 | 87 | +23.1 | +18.2 | -1 |
| 12 | St Pauli | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 40 | -17 | 24 | 1456 | 1386 | 94 | -0.4 | +5.4 | +2 |
| 13 | M'gladbach | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 28 | 43 | -15 | 25 | 1437 | 1419 | 90 | -4.2 | -2.4 | -1 |
| 14 | Werder Bremen | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 25 | 1430 | 1381 | 88 | +39.4 | +29.2 | +1 |
| 15 | Union Berlin | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | 1417 | 1406 | 88 | -39.4 | -29.5 | -2 |
| 16 | FC Koln | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 24 | 1390 | 1357 | 90 | -9.2 | -5.9 | 0 |
| 17 | Wolfsburg | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 34 | 55 | -21 | 20 | 1353 | 1313 | 90 | -23.1 | -19.7 | 0 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 25 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 24 | 57 | -33 | 14 | 1308 | 1240 | 95 | -9.9 | -6.3 | 0 |
Bundesliga ELO Progression 2025-2026
Bundesliga Power Rankings Analysis 2025-2026
Power Rankings Overview
Bayern remain the clear superpower: an ELO of 1748 and a Glicko-2 of 1898, backed by a 92–24 goal difference, is a different universe from the rest of the league. Dortmund are the only side vaguely in the same postcode, with 1676 ELO and 1770 G2, but still a full tier below. Both models are in lockstep at the top, from Bayern down through Hoffenheim, Stuttgart and Leipzig.
The Agreed Elite
Bayern’s attack is terrifying by any metric: 1783 attacking ELO, 1836 attacking G2, and almost four goals per game tell the same story of relentless pressure. Dortmund look like the most balanced challenger, with 1628 attacking ELO and 1533 defensive ELO mirrored by 1694 and 1600 in G2 — no real weakness, just not Bayern’s ceiling. Hoffenheim, Stuttgart and Leipzig all sit on 1600-ish ELO and low-1600s G2, signalling a genuine second tier where the models trust the body of work across 25 games.
Where the Models Disagree
The striking thing: Rank Diff never goes beyond ±2, so there are no wild disagreements, just quiet reshuffles around mid-table and the relegation line. St Pauli are the biggest movers, two spots higher in G2 despite a low 1386 rating and a high RD of 94; that combination screams volatility and recent improvement not yet fully stabilised. Union Berlin slide two places in G2, their rating down at 1406 with a tight RD of 88, suggesting the model now believes the early-season version that propped up their 1417 ELO was an illusion.
Form Watch
Two teams are absolutely rocketing: Werder’s ELO has jumped by 39.4 and their G2 by 29.2; Hamburg aren’t far behind with +23.1 ELO and +18.2 G2. Both were written off early, but their attacks now sit in the mid-1400s while defensive numbers tighten, dragging them out of the statistical danger zone. At the other end, Union’s brutal -39.4 ELO swing and -29.5 G2 collapse tell the story of a side that has gone from stubborn mid-table to soft underbelly in a month.
Relegation Watch
Heidenheim are buried: 1308 ELO, a league-worst 1240 G2, and 24–57 on goals leave no room for optimism. Wolfsburg’s 1353 ELO and 1313 G2, combined with a 34–55 goal difference, mark them as the other true basket case, even if their attacking components are strangely inflated. Köln sit on 1390 ELO and 1357 G2 with an attack rated higher than their place in the table, so the models still see a puncher’s chance of climbing out if they can stop leaking goals.
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