Premier League Power Rankings

Power Rankings Overview

Arsenal stay top of the power rankings with an ELO of 1698 and Glicko-2 at 1757, and this time both models back up the eye test. Manchester City are the only side remotely close, still strong at 1657 ELO and 1683 G2 despite a recent slide. From third downward the gap is real — the ratings say this is a two-team title tier with everyone else fighting for scraps.

The Agreed Elite

Arsenal’s dominance is built on balance: a 1612 attack and 1578 defense in ELO, mirrored by G2 at 1637 and 1629, plus positive moves in both systems this week. City match them punch for punch going forward with a 1600 ELO attack and 1627 G2 attack, but their defensive numbers (1550 ELO, 1601 G2) lag just enough to explain the seven-point gap in the table. Behind them, United’s twin ratings — 1612 ELO and 1611 G2 — scream “good but stuck,” strong enough to be third, not sharp enough to threaten the top two.

Where the Models Disagree

The biggest row between the models comes at Aston Villa. ELO has them down in ninth at 1515, while G2 fires them up to fourth on 1599 — a five-place jump that says their medium-term strength is much higher than their recent ELO trajectory of -33.8. Villa’s higher RD of 86 in G2 also hints at some uncertainty, but G2’s aggressive rating suggests good performances earlier in the window still carry weight.

Sunderland are the flip side. ELO puts them 13th on 1475, yet G2 bumps them to around midtable strength at 1502, even though that’s still three ranking spots higher than ELO wants to go. Their strong defensive markers — 1511 in ELO and 1518 in G2 — back the idea that this is a structurally solid side whose points total might be underselling them.

Crystal Palace also split the room. ELO is more bullish, placing them 16th at 1453 with a positive +28.3 swing, while G2 sits slightly higher at 1467 but effectively ranks them two spots worse. That gap suggests recent form has been kind, yet the broader sample in G2 isn’t fully buying a sustained surge.

Form Watch

Newcastle and West Ham are charging. Newcastle’s +34.9 ELO and +24.2 G2 jumps underline a genuine uptick powered by a 1537 ELO attack and an even stronger 1555 G2 attack. West Ham’s climb is louder in ELO at +37.7 than G2’s +28.3, hinting their latest results have outstripped their overall body of work, but both models agree they’re no longer soft touches.

On the slide, United’s -34.9 ELO and Liverpool’s -37.7 show the old guard bleeding rating points quickly. Villa’s -33.8 in ELO and -27.7 in G2 tell a similar story: a hot early season now fading hard in both models.

Relegation Watch

Wolves and Burnley sit in real danger. Wolves’ 1385 ELO and an even harsher 1323 G2, with a massive RD of 102, suggest the models still don’t fully know how bad they are — but both agree it’s grim. Burnley’s 1337 ELO and 1296 G2 lock them in as the weakest side on the board, with a 58-goal concession total backing that up.

Tottenham’s numbers are the curiosity. They’re 19th by ELO at 1348 but slightly better in G2 at 1366, implying the longer-term sample rates them a touch higher than their recent -28.3 ELO slide. Relegation still feels unlikely given their attacking grades — 1497 ELO attack, 1485 G2 attack — but both systems say they’re living dangerously close to a disaster season.