Premier League Power Rankings

Power Rankings Overview

Arsenal sit top on points with 82, but the models still treat this as City’s league. City’s ELO of 1706 and Glicko-2 of 1714 keep them marginally ahead of Arsenal’s 1678 and 1732, splitting the two giants depending on which system you trust. Below them, there’s a packed tier of flawed contenders, with United, Bournemouth and a resurgent Villa all jostling in the ratings despite very different league positions.

The Agreed Elite

City and Arsenal are the only sides both models treat as genuine heavyweights. City’s blend of a 1634 attack and 1570 defence in ELO, backed by a near-identical 1653 and 1623 in Glicko-2, screams balance and reliability. Arsenal’s defensive Glicko-2 of 1651 shows why they’ve conceded just 26 goals, and their RD of 84 is low enough that the model trusts what it’s seeing.

United round out the top tier in both systems, sitting on 1636 ELO and 1637 Glicko-2. Their attack is legitimately top-four calibre at 1595 ELO/1577 G2, but a leaky ELO defence at 1493 explains why they’re not in the title conversation.

Where the Models Disagree

Aston Villa are the headline split. ELO has them 11th on 1495, but Glicko-2 bumps them up to a clear top-eight level at 1553, a rank Diff of minus six. That jump, combined with a still-loose RD of 77, suggests the model sees emerging strength that ELO’s slower-moving baseline hasn’t fully priced in, especially with both attack and defence clustered around 1519 and 1490.

On the flip side, Nottingham Forest look overrated by ELO. They sit 9th at 1512 ELO, yet Glicko-2 drags them down to 1463 with a huge rank Diff of plus six. Forest’s G2 defence at 1495 is significantly softer than their ELO 1501, and with an RD of 76, the model is hinting their underlying level is closer to mid-table than the ratings gap suggests.

Leeds also show a meaningful split. They’re 5th in ELO at 1540 but three spots lower in Glicko-2 at 1516. That gap, alongside a strong recent ELO rise of plus 19.1, points to a team riding form that Glicko-2 still treats a bit cautiously.

Form Watch

No one is climbing faster than Sunderland and Villa. Sunderland’s ELO has exploded by 38.8 to 1482, with Glicko-2 up 18.4 to 1496, dragging them from relegation chatter into solid mid-table respectability. Villa’s plus 28.6 ELO and plus 14.2 G2 jumps match their 62 points on the board: they now grade like a serious European contender.

At the other end, Liverpool and Everton are sliding. Liverpool’s ELO has crashed 28.6 down to 1522, with Glicko-2 also negative at 1527, a brutal reset for a side expected to live among the elite. Everton’s drop is even steeper in model terms, losing 38.8 ELO and 18.8 G2, an analytical red flag that the wheels have come off after a promising start.

Relegation Watch

Wolves and Burnley are as doomed in the numbers as they look in the table. Wolves’ ELO of 1328 and G2 of 1295, paired with a high RD of 88, tell the story of a bad team the models still aren’t fully confident about, which is terrifying: they might even be worse than they look. Burnley are stuck at 1296 ELO and 1275 G2, with both systems in lockstep that this defence rated at 1372 ELO and 1369 G2 isn’t Premier League standard.

The real intrigue is just above them. Tottenham sit on 1403 ELO and 1399 G2 with no rank Diff, and West Ham at 1437 and 1419 look only marginally safer. The models aren’t throwing any lifelines here: the bottom four all grade as distinctly sub-par, miles off mid-table stability.