Ligue 1 2025-2026: Angers vs Toulouse Prediction - 8 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Angers

Home Team
31%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
45%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 20 15 3 2 43 16 27 48
2 Lens 20 15 1 4 34 16 18 46
3 Marseille 20 12 3 5 46 22 24 39
4 Lyon 20 12 3 5 33 20 13 39
5 Lille 20 10 2 8 34 30 4 32
6 Rennes 20 8 7 5 30 31 -1 31
7 Strasbourg 20 9 3 8 33 25 8 30
8 Toulouse 20 8 6 6 31 23 8 30
9 Lorient 20 7 7 6 27 31 -4 28
10 Monaco 20 8 3 9 32 33 -1 27
11 Angers 20 7 5 8 21 25 -4 26
12 Brest 20 6 5 9 26 33 -7 23
13 Nice 20 6 4 10 27 38 -11 22
14 Paris FC 20 5 6 9 26 34 -8 21
15 Le Havre 20 4 8 8 16 25 -9 20
16 Nantes 20 3 5 12 19 36 -17 14
17 Auxerre 20 3 4 13 14 29 -15 13
18 Metz 20 3 3 14 21 46 -25 12

Recent Trends

Angers W D L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 4 - 1)

Toulouse D W W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Paris FC (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Angers

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.43
# Clean Sheets: 2

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.11
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.53
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Toulouse are slight favourites here, with a 45.0% chance of winning away compared to Angers’ 31.0%, and a draw at 24.0%. The model leans towards a Toulouse victory in a relatively tight game, with under 2.5 total goals more likely (56.0% implied) than a high‑scoring affair. In the table, Toulouse sit 8th on 30 points, while Angers are just behind in 11th on 26 points.

Match Analysis

Angers come in with mixed form: a solid 1–0 home win over bottom‑side Metz, a goalless draw away at Paris FC, and a heavy 5–2 home defeat to Marseille. Their recent numbers show they’re creating and scoring fairly well, averaging 2.0 goals per game in their last five, with 1.54 expected goals. Defensively, though, they concede 1.6 per match on average, and 1.426 expected goals, underlining why results remain inconsistent despite two clean sheets in their last five. Toulouse look more stable. They’re unbeaten in their last three, with a 0–0 home draw against Auxerre followed by a 2–0 win at Brest and a commanding 5–1 victory over Nice. They average 1.6 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded across the last five, backed by three clean sheets, suggesting an organised back line. Interestingly, their expected goals conceded (1.526) is higher than what they’re actually letting in, hinting that recent defensive results have been slightly better than the chances they’ve allowed.

Final Prediction

Toulouse’s edge comes from their recent defensive solidity and slightly better overall form, even if their underlying numbers suggest they may be overperforming at the back. Angers can trouble them, but their habit of conceding soft goals could be costly. A key factor to watch will be whether Angers’ attack, averaging 2.0 goals recently, can break down a Toulouse side that has kept three clean sheets in five.

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