Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lyon vs Nice Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lyon

Home Team
79%
VS

Nice

Away Team
10%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 25.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 21 16 3 2 48 16 32 51
2 Lens 21 16 1 4 37 17 20 49
3 Lyon 21 13 3 5 34 20 14 42
4 Marseille 21 12 3 6 46 27 19 39
5 Lille 21 10 3 8 34 30 4 33
6 Rennes 21 8 7 6 31 34 -3 31
7 Strasbourg 21 9 3 9 34 27 7 30
8 Toulouse 21 8 6 7 31 24 7 30
9 Angers 21 8 5 8 22 25 -3 29
10 Monaco 21 8 4 9 32 33 -1 28
11 Lorient 21 7 7 7 27 33 -6 28
12 Brest 21 7 5 9 28 33 -5 26
13 Le Havre 21 5 8 8 18 26 -8 23
14 Nice 21 6 5 10 27 38 -11 23
15 Paris FC 21 5 7 9 26 34 -8 22
16 Auxerre 21 3 5 13 14 29 -15 14
17 Nantes 21 3 5 13 19 37 -18 14
18 Metz 21 3 4 14 21 46 -25 13

Recent Trends

Lyon W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Monaco (Goals: 3 - 1)

Nice D D W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lyon

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.82
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.01
# Clean Sheets: 2

Nice

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.17
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.10
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lyon are strong favourites at home with a 79.0% chance of victory, compared to just 10.0% for Nice and a 12.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 prediction, with a 53.0% chance the game produces at least three goals. In the table, Lyon sit 3rd on 42 points and firmly in the Champions League race, while Nice are down in 14th with 23 points and looking over their shoulder at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Lyon come into this one on a three-game winning streak, beating Nantes and Lille by identical 1-0 scorelines before exploding in a 5-2 away win at Metz. That run shows they can edge tight, tactical matches as well as open, attacking contests. Over their last five games they are averaging 1.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, supported by solid underlying numbers: 1.822 expected goals (xG) created and 1.014 xG conceded per match, plus two clean sheets. Nice’s recent form is more mixed but slightly improving: back-to-back home draws against Monaco (0-0) and Brest (2-2), followed by a 4-1 win away at Nantes. The results look positive, but the defensive fragility is clear. In their last five games they’ve conceded 2.6 goals per match on average, with 2.1 expected goals conceded – far higher than Lyon’s defensive record – while scoring 1.4 goals from 1.174 xG. That combination of leaky defending and modest attacking output is a concern against a top-three side.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lyon
Goals in last 5 matches
Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 53.0%, and the recent goal patterns support a leaning towards goals. Two of Lyon’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (the 5-2 at Metz and the combined totals), while one was under 2.5. For Nice, two of their last three also finished over 2.5 (4-1 vs Nantes and 2-2 vs Brest), with only the 0-0 against Monaco going under 2.5. With Lyon averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Nice at 1.4 scored and 2.6 conceded – backed by both sides’ xG figures – the balance tilts slightly towards over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lyon
Corners in last 5 matches
Nice
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners for this match is 10.1 in total, suggesting a reasonably busy game in wide areas. Lyon’s last three outings saw corner totals of 9, 9 and 10, while Nice’s games produced 14, 11 and 6 corners respectively. Both sides have recently been involved in matches where opponents rack up corners as well, indicating that Lyon’s territorial pressure and Nice’s need to counter could combine to meet that corners prediction around the 10-mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lyon
Shots in last 5 matches
Nice
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.97, pointing to a match with a decent volume of attempts on goal from both teams. Lyon’s last three games saw combined shot totals of 23, 15 and 28, while Nice’s produced 23, 27 and 27 shots respectively, all aligning well with this shots prediction. Given Lyon’s higher attacking xG and Nice’s tendency to allow chances (2.1 xG conceded on average), a figure close to the expected shots total looks realistic.

Final Prediction

Lyon’s superior league position, recent three-game winning streak and stronger defensive and xG profile give them a clear edge over a Nice side still conceding heavily. If Lyon impose their usual rhythm at home, their attack should find enough space against Nice’s vulnerable back line. The key factor to watch will be how often Lyon can turn sustained pressure into shots and corners, which should dictate whether the game opens up into the goal-heavy scenario the numbers suggest.

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