Ligue 1 2025-2026: Nice vs Lyon Prediction
Nice
Home Team
39%
VS
Lyon
Away Team
36%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5:
51%
Under 2.5:
49%
Goal:
57%
No Goal:
43%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | Marseille | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | Strasbourg | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Lyon | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Lens | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Lille | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Paris FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Rennes | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Brest | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Nice | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Lorient | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Nantes | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Angers | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Metz | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Nice
- Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 4)
- 4th Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 3)
Lyon
- Last Match: vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Nice
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.83
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.27
# Clean Sheets:
1
Lyon
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.33
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.91
# Clean Sheets:
3
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Nice and Lyon in Ligue 1 is predicted to favor the home side, Nice, with a 39.0% probability of winning. Despite this, Lyon is not far behind with a 36.0% chance of securing a victory, leaving the possibility of a draw at 25.0%. The match is expected to be a high-scoring affair with a 51.0% probability of over 2.5 goals. Currently, Lyon holds the 4th position in the league standings, while Nice finds themselves in 12th place, striving to climb up the table.
Match Analysis
Nice's recent performances have been somewhat inconsistent, with two draws and a loss in their last three matches. Their latest encounter with Monaco ended in a 2-2 draw, showcasing their ability to score but also highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Their draw against Paris FC at home and a heavy away defeat against Brest indicate that Nice is struggling to maintain a solid defense, having conceded goals in each of these games. However, Nice's offensive efforts are underscored by an average of 1.835 expected goals over the last five games, suggesting they are creating scoring opportunities.
On the other hand, Lyon comes into this match with mixed results. They secured victories over Lille and Angers, both with clean sheets, but suffered a defeat against Toulouse. Lyon’s defensive strength is evident from their three clean sheets in the last five matches, though their attack has been less prolific, averaging just 1.0 goal per game. The team's expected goals scored (1.33) and conceded (1.91) indicate a potential vulnerability in defense, which Nice might exploit.
Final Prediction
Nice is predicted to have an edge due to their stronger home performance and ability to generate scoring chances, as reflected in their higher expected goals. However, Lyon's resilient defense, capable of maintaining clean sheets, presents a key challenge. A pivotal factor to observe will be whether Nice can break through Lyon's defensive setup and capitalize on their scoring opportunities.