Premier League 2025-2026: Burnley vs Leeds Prediction
Burnley
Home Team
9%
VS
Leeds
Away Team
82%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5:
44%
Under 2.5:
56%
Goal:
53%
No Goal:
47%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Tottenham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Bournemouth | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Man City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 13 |
| 6 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Man United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Brighton | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Fulham | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Nott'm Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Burnley | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 | West Ham | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 4 |
| 20 | Wolves | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Burnley
- Last Match: vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 5)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 3)
Leeds
- Last Match: vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Bournemouth (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Fulham (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Newcastle (Goals: 0 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Burnley
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.77
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.58
# Clean Sheets:
0
Leeds
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.48
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.82
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Burnley and Leeds is predicted to favor the visiting team, Leeds, with a significant 82.0% probability of securing a victory. With Burnley languishing at 18th position in the Premier League standings and Leeds occupying the 15th spot, the statistics suggest a challenging match for the home side. The game is also expected to be low-scoring, with a predicted probability of under 2.5 goals standing at 44.0%.
Match Analysis
Recent performances highlight contrasting fortunes for both teams. Burnley has struggled in their last three outings, managing only a single draw against Nott'm Forest, while suffering defeats at the hands of Aston Villa and Manchester City. They have displayed a consistent pattern of scoring a solitary goal per match, yet their defense has been porous, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game. Their advanced metrics show a concerning lack of clean sheets in recent matches, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
On the other hand, Leeds' recent form paints a slightly more promising picture. Despite a loss to Tottenham, they managed a draw against Bournemouth and secured a crucial away win against Wolves. However, defensively, Leeds has not been impervious, conceding an average of 2.333 goals per game in their last five matches. Their expected goals metrics are relatively lower, suggesting a need for more clinical finishing upfront. Nevertheless, their ability to find the back of the net regularly, coupled with a clean sheet in one of their last five matches, provides a slight edge over Burnley.
Final Prediction
Leeds' superior league position and their recent ability to score consistently give them a distinct advantage over Burnley. The key factor to watch during the game will be Leeds' ability to capitalize on Burnley's defensive frailties, potentially securing a vital away victory that could help them climb the Premier League standings.