Premier League 2025-2026: Chelsea vs Liverpool Prediction
Chelsea
Home Team
39%
VS
Liverpool
Away Team
36%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5:
54%
Under 2.5:
46%
Goal:
58%
No Goal:
42%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 13 |
| 3 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Tottenham | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Sunderland | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Man City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Brighton | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Fulham | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Man United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Newcastle | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Nott'm Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Burnley | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | West Ham | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Wolves | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 |
Recent Trends
Chelsea
- Last Match: vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs West Ham (Goals: 5 - 1)
Liverpool
- Last Match: vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Newcastle (Goals: 3 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Chelsea
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.94
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.42
# Clean Sheets:
1
Liverpool
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.18
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.89
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Chelsea and Liverpool is set to be an engaging encounter, with Chelsea predicted to have a slight edge with a 39.0% probability of winning. Liverpool also stands a strong chance with a 36.0% probability, but Chelsea's home advantage might tip the scales in their favor. Given the predicted probability of over 2.5 goals at 54.0%, fans can expect an attacking game. Liverpool currently leads the Premier League, sitting comfortably in 1st position, while Chelsea occupies the 8th spot.
Match Analysis
Both teams have had interesting runs in their last few matches. Chelsea's recent form has been shaky, with a home loss against Brighton and an away defeat to Manchester United, followed by a draw against Brentford. Their defense has been a concern, conceding multiple goals in recent fixtures. In contrast, Liverpool bounced back from a loss against Crystal Palace to secure wins against Everton and Burnley, showcasing resilience and solid performances.
Advanced metrics reveal intriguing insights. Chelsea has been scoring an average of 1.0 goal per game while conceding the same, indicating a balanced but inconsistent attack and defense. Their expected goals metrics suggest they have been creating more chances than they convert. Conversely, Liverpool has a more potent attack, averaging 1.67 goals per game, with a slightly higher expected goals figure of 2.18, reflecting their offensive prowess. Defensively, Liverpool has managed two clean sheets in their last five outings, indicating a more stable back line compared to Chelsea's.
Final Prediction
Chelsea's predicted edge stems from their home advantage, but Liverpool's form and attacking efficiency present a significant challenge. A key factor to watch is Liverpool's ability to capitalize on their expected goals, which could be the difference-maker against Chelsea's vulnerable defense. With both teams likely to score, fans can anticipate an exciting and competitive match.