Serie A 2025-2026: Lecce vs Udinese Prediction - 8 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Lecce

Home Team
23%
VS

Udinese

Away Team
57%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 23 18 1 4 52 19 33 55
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 23 14 4 5 33 21 12 46
4 Juventus 23 13 6 4 39 18 21 45
5 Roma 23 14 1 8 27 14 13 43
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 23 9 9 5 30 20 10 36
8 Lazio 23 8 8 7 24 21 3 32
9 Udinese 23 9 5 9 26 34 -8 32
10 Bologna 23 8 6 9 32 30 2 30
11 Sassuolo 23 8 5 10 27 29 -2 29
12 Cagliari 23 7 7 9 28 31 -3 28
13 Torino 23 7 5 11 22 40 -18 26
14 Genoa 23 5 8 10 27 34 -7 23
15 Cremonese 23 5 8 10 20 31 -11 23
16 Parma 23 5 8 10 15 30 -15 23
17 Lecce 23 4 6 13 13 30 -17 18
18 Fiorentina 23 3 8 12 25 36 -11 17
19 Pisa 23 1 11 11 19 40 -21 14
20 Verona 23 2 8 13 18 41 -23 14

Recent Trends

Lecce L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 2)

Udinese W W L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.20
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.34
# Clean Sheets: 1

Udinese

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.43
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.78
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Udinese are favoured to take all three points, with a 57.0% probability of an away win against a Lecce side given just a 23.0% chance at home (20.0% for the draw). With Udinese sitting 9th on 32 points and Lecce down in 17th on 18 points and fighting the drop, the model also leans towards a low‑scoring game: under 2.5 goals is preferred (45.0% for over), and there is a slight tilt towards “no both teams to score” (50.0% no_goal).

Match Analysis

Lecce come into this under pressure, winless in their last three: a 1-0 defeat at Torino, a goalless home draw with Lazio, and a 1-0 loss away to Milan. Worryingly, they have failed to score in all three. The underlying numbers suggest they are creating more than the scoreboard shows – 1.198 expected goals on average over the last five matches but only 0.4 actual goals scored – while conceding 1.4 per game from 1.34 expected. That points to wastefulness in attack and little margin for error at the back. Udinese, by contrast, have found some momentum. They beat Roma 1-0 at home and won 3-1 away at Verona before a narrow 1-0 home loss to leaders Inter. Over their last five, they are averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with 1.434 expected goals for and 1.782 against. So they carry more attacking threat than Lecce at the moment, even if they do allow chances themselves, and their recent wins have pushed them into the top half.

Final Prediction

Udinese’s stronger league position, recent wins over Roma and Verona, and superior scoring record give them the edge over a Lecce side in poor form and struggling badly in front of goal. The key factor to watch will be whether Lecce can finally convert their underlying attacking chances into goals, or if Udinese’s sharper finishing decides a tight, low‑scoring contest.

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