Serie A 2025-2026: Roma vs Cagliari Prediction - 9 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Roma

Home Team
90%
VS

Cagliari

Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 23 18 1 4 52 19 33 55
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 23 14 4 5 33 21 12 46
4 Juventus 23 13 6 4 39 18 21 45
5 Roma 23 14 1 8 27 14 13 43
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 23 9 9 5 30 20 10 36
8 Lazio 23 8 8 7 24 21 3 32
9 Udinese 23 9 5 9 26 34 -8 32
10 Bologna 23 8 6 9 32 30 2 30
11 Sassuolo 23 8 5 10 27 29 -2 29
12 Cagliari 23 7 7 9 28 31 -3 28
13 Torino 23 7 5 11 22 40 -18 26
14 Genoa 23 5 8 10 27 34 -7 23
15 Cremonese 23 5 8 10 20 31 -11 23
16 Parma 23 5 8 10 15 30 -15 23
17 Lecce 23 4 6 13 13 30 -17 18
18 Fiorentina 23 3 8 12 25 36 -11 17
19 Pisa 23 1 11 11 19 40 -21 14
20 Verona 23 2 8 13 18 41 -23 14

Recent Trends

Roma L D W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)

Cagliari W W W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Roma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.85
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.78
# Clean Sheets: 3

Cagliari

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.13
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.23
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are strong favourites at home, with a 90.0% probability of taking all three points against 12th-placed Cagliari. The model also leans towards an open game, with over 2.5 goals slightly favoured at 52.0%. Roma currently sit 5th in Serie A, pushing for the Champions League spots, while Cagliari are mid-table on 28 points and still looking over their shoulder at the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Roma’s last three matches show a solid if unspectacular run: a 2–0 win away at Torino, a 1–1 home draw with Milan, and a narrow 1–0 defeat at Udinese. The underlying numbers back up a well-balanced side: 1.4 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded on average over the last five games, with expected goals of 1.846 for and only 0.784 against. Three clean sheets in that stretch underline how hard Roma are to break down when they control the tempo. Cagliari arrive in great spirits after three straight wins: 4–0 at home to Verona, 2–1 away at Fiorentina, and a 1–0 home victory over Juventus. However, the advanced metrics paint a more cautious picture. They average 1.4 goals scored but 1.8 conceded across the last five, and their expected goals against is a high 2.23, suggesting opponents are still creating plenty of chances. Two clean sheets are encouraging, yet their defensive vulnerability beneath the surface could be exposed by a more clinical Roma.

Final Prediction

Roma’s combination of strong defensive numbers, better underlying chance creation, and home advantage explains their big edge in the prediction. Cagliari’s recent results are impressive, but their high expected goals conceded hints at cracks Roma are well placed to exploit. A key factor to watch will be how often Roma can turn territorial dominance into clear chances against a Cagliari side that has been living dangerously despite its winning run.

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