Serie A 2025-2026: Udinese vs Fiorentina Prediction - 2 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Udinese

Home Team
32%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
45%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Shots: 24.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 26 21 1 4 62 21 41 64
2 Milan 26 15 9 2 41 20 21 54
3 Napoli 26 15 5 6 39 27 12 50
4 Roma 26 16 2 8 34 16 18 50
5 Juventus 26 13 7 6 43 25 18 46
6 Como 26 12 9 5 41 19 22 45
7 Atalanta 26 12 9 5 36 22 14 45
8 Bologna 26 10 6 10 35 32 3 36
9 Sassuolo 26 10 5 11 32 35 -3 35
10 Lazio 26 8 10 8 26 25 1 34
11 Udinese 26 9 5 12 28 39 -11 32
12 Parma 26 8 8 10 19 31 -12 32
13 Cagliari 26 7 8 11 28 35 -7 29
14 Genoa 26 6 9 11 32 37 -5 27
15 Torino 26 7 6 13 25 47 -22 27
16 Fiorentina 26 5 9 12 30 39 -9 24
17 Cremonese 26 5 9 12 21 36 -15 24
18 Lecce 26 6 6 14 17 33 -16 24
19 Pisa 26 1 12 13 20 43 -23 15
20 Verona 26 2 9 15 19 46 -27 15

Recent Trends

Udinese L L L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 1)

Fiorentina W W D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Udinese

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.85
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.27
# Clean Sheets: 1

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.51
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.72
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina are slight favourites here, with a 45.0% chance of victory compared to Udinese’s 32.0%, and the visitors expected to edge it despite sitting 16th on 24 points, five places and eight points behind 11th‑placed Udinese. The model leans towards a tight encounter, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% (46.0% chance of over 2.5), suggesting a cagey game rather than a shoot‑out. Both sides are still looking over their shoulders with relegation a live threat for anyone below mid‑table.

Match Analysis

Udinese come into this on a three‑match losing run, beaten by Bologna (0-1), Sassuolo (1-2) and Lecce (1-2). The pattern is worrying: just two goals scored across those fixtures and five conceded, with the shot counts often going against them – notably 6-16 at Lecce and 8-10 at home to Sassuolo. Their recent advanced numbers back up the eye test: only 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded on average over the last five, with a modest 0.85 expected goals (xG) for and 1.274 xG against. They’re not creating much and are giving up more than they generate. Fiorentina’s form line is far healthier: back‑to‑back wins over Como (2-1 away) and Pisa (1-0 at home), followed by a 2-2 home draw with Torino. That’s seven points from nine, with five goals scored and three conceded, and the shot volumes are encouraging – 21 efforts against Torino and 15 against Pisa, even if they were out‑shot 7-16 at Como. Over the last five matches they’re averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with stronger attacking underlying numbers than Udinese (1.506 xG for, 1.722 xG against). Fiorentina look more capable of putting games in their control, even if they still give up chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
The tilt is towards under 2.5, with the model giving a 54.0% chance that this stays relatively low‑scoring. Two of Udinese’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (both 1-2 defeats), but their own output remains low at 1.0 goal per game and just 0.85 xG in the recent sample. Fiorentina have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 as well (2-1 at Como, 2-2 vs Torino), but their slightly better attack is balanced by the overall conservative under 2.5 prediction, suggesting a narrow away win rather than a goal fest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure sits at 24.5, suggesting a mid‑range tempo game rather than an end‑to‑end barrage. Udinese’s last three outings brought 10, 8 and 6 attempts, all while allowing double‑digit shots twice (11 at Bologna, 16 at Lecce), hinting they may again spend long spells without the ball. Fiorentina’s profile is more proactive: 15, 7 and 21 shots in their last three, in line with their higher attacking xG of 1.506. That supports the shots prediction of around 24–25 efforts overall, with Fiorentina likely to take the larger share.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina’s recent upturn, stronger attacking metrics and higher win probability give them a slight edge over an Udinese side stuck in a losing run and struggling to create chances. The key factor to watch will be Fiorentina’s ability to turn their shot volume and xG advantage into goals in what is projected to be a tight, low‑scoring contest.

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