Serie A 2025-2026: Verona vs Pisa Prediction - 6 Feb 2026
Result | Under-Over 2.5
Verona
Home Team
77%
VS
Pisa
Away Team
11%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5:
49%
Under 2.5:
51%
Goal:
53%
No Goal:
47%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 23 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 52 | 19 | 33 | 55 |
| 2 | Milan | 23 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 50 |
| 3 | Napoli | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | Juventus | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 45 |
| 5 | Roma | 23 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 43 |
| 6 | Como | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 41 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 36 |
| 8 | Lazio | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 32 |
| 9 | Udinese | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 32 |
| 10 | Bologna | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 30 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 29 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 28 |
| 13 | Torino | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 26 |
| 14 | Genoa | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 23 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 31 | -11 | 23 |
| 16 | Parma | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 23 |
| 17 | Lecce | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 18 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 23 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 17 |
| 19 | Pisa | 23 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 14 |
| 20 | Verona | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 14 |
Recent Trends
Verona
- Last Match: vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 4)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 1)
Pisa
- Last Match: vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 6)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Como (Goals: 0 - 3)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Verona
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.94
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.35
# Clean Sheets:
1
Pisa
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.15
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.60
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
Verona are strongly favored at home, with a 77.0% chance of victory against Pisa’s 11.0% and a predicted home win despite both sides sitting joint-bottom on 14 points (Verona 20th, Pisa 19th). The match is expected to be tight, with under 2.5 goals slightly more likely (49.0%), but both teams are still given a 53.0% chance of scoring at least once.
Match Analysis
Both clubs come into this as relegation rivals in desperate form, but Verona’s recent results are particularly worrying: a 4–0 thrashing at Cagliari, a 3–1 home defeat to Udinese, and a goalless draw at Cremonese. Still, their advanced metrics show they’re not completely toothless: 1.2 goals scored on average over the last five matches from 0.94 expected goals, and 1 clean sheet in that run, suggesting that when they get their defensive structure right, they can grind out results.
Pisa’s recent run is just as fragile: a 3–1 home loss to Sassuolo, a 6–2 hammering at Inter, and a 1–1 draw with Atalanta. Their numbers underline their problems at the back: 2.4 goals conceded per game in the last five and a hefty 2.598 expected goals against, with no clean sheets. Offensively they’re marginally more productive than Verona (1.4 goals and 1.152 expected goals per game), but their defensive vulnerability severely undermines that attacking output.
Final Prediction
Verona’s edge comes mainly from home advantage and Pisa’s consistently leaky defence, which the probabilities reflect heavily in favor of the hosts. The key factor to watch will be whether Pisa’s back line can cope with the pressure or if Verona can turn their slightly better defensive stability into a crucial, low-scoring home win.
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