Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Adam Walton vs Gabriel Diallo: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Adam Walton

Rank: #93
35%
VS

Gabriel Diallo

Rank: #38
65%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Gabriel Diallo

Player Metrics

Adam Walton

Form Index: 25.8
ELO Rating: 657.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 195.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.3
Clay: 5.5
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 75.5
Return Rating: 58.6

Gabriel Diallo

Form Index: 7.6
ELO Rating: 1063.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1558.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.9
Clay: 11.0
Grass: 12.0
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 88.9

Recent Matches

Adam Walton

  • Last Match: vs Sho Shimabukuro (0-2) hard Delray Beach 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Nicolas Moreno De Alboran (2-1) hard Delray Beach 112 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Adrian Mannarino (0-2) hard Dallas 84 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Quentin Halys (0-2) hard Adelaide 89 min

Gabriel Diallo

  • Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Dallas 97 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Andrea Vavassori (0-2) hard Adelaide 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Coleman Wong (1-2) hard Hong Kong 149 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jesper de Jong (2-0) hard Hong Kong 105 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Adam Walton
vs
0
Gabriel Diallo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match at Delray Beach, Florida is on hard courts at an ATP 250–level event and pits Adam Walton against Gabriel Diallo. The model favors Gabriel Diallo to win (64.67%) over Adam Walton (35.33%), with a predicted total of about 24.94 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Walton enters ranked 93 with a form index of 25.79 and an Elo of 657.48; his cumulative fatigue in the current tournament is 195 minutes and his surface strength index on hard is 4.29. Diallo is the higher-ranked player at 38, but shows a lower form index (7.61) and a much higher Elo of 1063.56; he arrives with no recorded fatigue for this event and a surface strength index of 7.87. The difference in serve quality is notable: Diallo’s mean serve index (98.22) exceeds Walton’s (75.46) by more than 20 points, and his mean return index (88.92) is also substantially higher than Walton’s 58.61 — both margins exceed the 5-point threshold and are likely to shape rallies and break opportunities. Over their last three matches, Walton has one win and two losses, including a straight-sets loss in his most recent Delray Beach match and a 112-minute victory two matches ago. Diallo’s most recent three results are all losses, including a long 174-minute encounter at the Australian Open and a 97-minute match against Ben Shelton. Those results indicate recent match losses for Diallo despite strong underlying serve/return metrics, while Walton has split recent outcomes with moderate court time in this event.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match is elevated: the model forecasts about 24.56 predicted aces and roughly 6.81 expected double faults. Hard courts typically yield a moderate-to-high ace count relative to clay; Diallo’s significantly higher serve rating suggests he will contribute disproportionately to the ace total, while double faults prediction remains modest.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 24.6 Most likely: 26 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.8 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Diallo’s superior Elo, serving and returning indices, and lack of tournament fatigue give him the edge in this matchup. Watch how Diallo’s serve dominance and Walton’s ability to convert return opportunities determine the turning points in this relatively short anticipated match.

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