Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Quentin Halys vs Adam Walton: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Quentin Halys

Rank: #68
63%
VS

Adam Walton

Rank: #87
37%
Expected Total Games: 25.5
Predicted Winner: Quentin Halys

Ranking Trends

Quentin Halys

  • Current Rank: #68 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #91 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #70 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #52 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #59 (2025-03-03)

Adam Walton

  • Current Rank: #87 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #78 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #85 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #91 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #96 (2025-03-03)

Player Metrics

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 46.4
ELO Rating: 800.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1598.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.8
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 88.3
Return Rating: 34.9

Adam Walton

Form Index: 24.6
ELO Rating: 690.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1555.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 6.6
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Quentin Halys
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jack Draper (0-2) hard Dubai 97 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Shevchenko (2-0) hard Dubai 101 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (2-0) hard Dubai 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fils (0-2) hard Doha 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-1) hard Doha 143 min

Adam Walton
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (0-2) hard Acapulco 118 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-2) hard Delray Beach 97 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Gabriel Diallo (2-0) hard Delray Beach 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Sho Shimabukuro (0-2) hard Delray Beach 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolas Moreno De Alboran (2-1) hard Delray Beach 112 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Quentin Halys
vs
0
Adam Walton
Hard
2 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells (hard court), Round of 128 play sets Quentin Halys against Adam Walton in a Masters 1000 opening match. The model gives Halys the edge — predicted winner Quentin Halys (62.73%) over Adam Walton (37.27%) — with an expected total of about 25.47 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Halys arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 68) with a superior Elo (800.70) and a healthier form index (46.39) compared with Walton (rank 87, Elo 690.10, form 24.56). Both players show zero cumulative fatigue from this event. Surface strength indices are low for both (Halys 4.79, Walton 6.63), suggesting neither has a pronounced historical edge on hard courts in the model’s surface metric. There is a notable gap in serving and returning metrics: Walton posts a higher mean serve index (97.91) versus Halys (88.33) — a difference greater than five points — and an even larger advantage on return (Walton 90.57 vs Halys 34.88), which also exceeds the five-point threshold. Those disparities frame a tactical clash between Halys’ overall match metrics and Walton’s specialist serve/return numbers. Recent form underlines the projection: Halys has two straight wins followed by a loss in Dubai (beat Shevchenko and O’Connell, then fell to Draper), while Walton’s last three are mixed with one win followed by two defeats (beat Diallo, then lost to Paul and Kovacevic). The sample suggests Halys carries more consistent results into the hard-court conditions at Indian Wells.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.5 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for the match sits at about 16.86 total, with a predicted aces skew toward the player with the higher serve index. The hard surface is moderate for big-serving displays, so the predicted aces reflect that balance. The double faults prediction expects roughly 5.74 expected double faults in the match; Walton’s significantly higher serve rating likely inflates the predicted ace count while his serve aggressiveness could also contribute to some of those expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Halys’ higher ranking, Elo and steadier recent results give him the modeled edge, even as Walton’s elite serve and return indices pose a clear threat. The key factor to watch will be how Walton’s return game translates early on — if it neutralizes Halys’ service games, the match could become tighter than the probabilities indicate.

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