Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Adam Walton vs Adrian Mannarino: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Adam Walton

Rank: #81
39%
VS

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #70
61%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Adrian Mannarino

Player Metrics

Adam Walton

Form Index: 12.2
ELO Rating: 695.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1560.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.8
Clay: 5.4
Grass: 4.7
Serve Rating: 73.8
Return Rating: 56.3

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 55.1
ELO Rating: 830.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1580.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.3
Clay: 5.9
Grass: 7.6
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 91.0

Recent Matches

Adam Walton

  • Last Match: vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Quentin Halys (0-2) hard Adelaide 89 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jake Delaney (2-1) hard Adelaide 133 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Rinky Hijikata (0-2) hard Brisbane 72 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Aleksandar Vukic (1-2) hard Paris 119 min

Adrian Mannarino

  • Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Montpellier 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Martin Damm (2-1) hard Montpellier 104 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Arthur Gea (2-1) hard Montpellier 151 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Ugo Humbert (2-1) hard Montpellier 167 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Pedro Martinez (2-0) hard Montpellier 96 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Adam Walton
vs
0
Adrian Mannarino
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Dallas (TX) in the round of 32 on hard courts at an atp_500 event, Adrian Mannarino is favored to progress. The model projects Mannarino to win with a 61.11% probability versus Adam Walton at 38.89%, and forecasts a relatively short match of about 23.8 total games.

Match Analysis

Walton (rank 81) arrives with a low form index (12.25) and an Elo of 695.78. He shows no tournament fatigue and has a modest surface strength index (5.78). Walton’s mean serve index (73.79) trails Mannarino’s substantially, and his mean return index (56.32) is also well below his opponent’s. Mannarino (rank 70) carries a much stronger form index (55.10) and an Elo of 830.27, likewise with zero minutes on court in this event and a slightly higher surface strength index (9.30). The difference in mean serve index (~23.9 points) and mean return index (~34.7 points) both exceed 5 points, signaling a clear edge for Mannarino in baseline effectiveness and service quality. Recent results reflect those metrics. Walton has one win in his last three matches (a 2–1 victory over Jake Delaney) but followed by straight-set losses to Quentin Halys and a three-set defeat to Carlos Alcaraz in a 174-minute match, suggesting heavy recent workload despite no tournament minutes here. Mannarino won two matches in Montpellier before falling to Felix Auger-Aliassime; his last three show more consistent positive results and shorter match durations overall, matching his higher form and Elo.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is about 12.95 total, with a double faults prediction of roughly 4.17 expected double faults. On medium-paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate compared with grass or clay; the surface typically yields a balanced number of free points. Mannarino’s markedly higher serve rating should push the predicted aces upward and be a primary driver of the match’s ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Mannarino’s superior Elo, form index and large advantages in serve and return metrics give him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be whether Mannarino’s serve dominance converts into free points (aces) and early breaks, which the model sees as decisive.

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