Zachary Svajda vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

On paper the matchup is defined by a large gap in Elo and ranking: Svajda sits at world No. 109 with an Elo of 484.05 while Davidovich is ranked 15 with an Elo of 2270.72. Form indices are nearly identical (65.51 vs 65.53), so short-term momentum looks even, but fatigue and surface profile tilt the balance. Svajda arrives with 224 minutes already played in the event; Davidovich shows zero tournament minutes. Surface strength indexes favor Davidovich (14.23 vs 3.28). There is a pronounced difference in serving and returning — Davidovich’s mean serve index (97.08) is far higher than Svajda’s (46.13), and his mean return index (92.31) also substantially eclipses Svajda’s (29.58), both differences well above 5 points. Recent match patterns reinforce those metrics. Svajda has three straight hard-court wins in his last three matches (including a 2–1 win in Dallas and two straight-set victories, with match times of 138, 86 and 174 minutes). Davidovich’s last three came at the Australian Open on hard courts: two wins (including a five-set win over Reilly Opelka) and a loss to Tommy Paul, with each recorded match at 174 minutes.