Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Alejandro Tabilo vs Emilio Nava: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #71
54%
VS

Emilio Nava

Rank: #81
46%
Expected Total Games: 24.4
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Tabilo

Ranking Trends

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Current Rank: #71 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #81 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #126 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #61 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #28 (2025-02-17)

Emilio Nava

  • Current Rank: #81 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #88 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #101 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #138 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #214 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 39.9
ELO Rating: 742.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1686.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.3
Clay: 7.0
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 87.1
Return Rating: 52.4

Emilio Nava

Form Index: 37.4
ELO Rating: 680.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1528.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Alejandro Tabilo
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-2) clay Buenos Aires 126 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 144 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Facundo Diaz Acosta (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 110 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (1-2) hard Auckland 108 min

Emilio Nava
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 63 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Kyrian Jacquet (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (1-2) hard Auckland 143 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-1) hard Auckland 101 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alejandro Tabilo
vs
0
Emilio Nava
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round of 32 clay match in Rio (atp_500 event) pits Alejandro Tabilo against Emilio Nava on one of the slowest surfaces of the season. The model gives Alejandro Tabilo the edge, projected to win with a 54.10% probability against Nava’s 45.90%, and a predicted total of about 24.39 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tabilo (rank 71) enters with a higher Elo (742.08) and a slightly stronger recent form index (39.86) than Nava (rank 81, Elo 680.73, form 37.37). Both players show no cumulative fatigue from the current tournament. Surface strength indices are modest for both—Tabilo 6.98 and Nava 5.66—indicating neither is a clay specialist by these metrics. The mean serve indices differ meaningfully: Nava’s serve index (97.41) is about 10 points higher than Tabilo’s (87.12), while Nava also holds a substantially stronger mean return index (87.17) compared with Tabilo’s 52.36; both differences exceed the 5-point threshold and are likely to shape service dynamics and break opportunities. Recent form over the last three matches shows Tabilo coming off two wins in Buenos Aires (including a straight-sets win and a three-setter) before a three-set loss to Tomas Martin Etcheverry on clay; his recent matches were long, suggesting solid match toughness. Nava’s last three results include a win at the Australian Open over Kyrian Jacquet on hard courts, followed by two defeats (a long hard-court loss to Cameron Norrie and a straight-sets loss in Buenos Aires on clay), indicating mixed momentum and fewer extended wins on clay.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.4 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 19.38 total, while the expected double faults sit at 5.72. On clay, predicted aces tend to be lower than on faster surfaces because the slower bounce reduces outright service winners; this supports the model’s moderate predicted aces count. Given Nava’s notably higher serve rating, he is the likelier contributor to the predicted aces, while the expected double faults may be influenced by longer rallies and potential late-match fatigue.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.4 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tabilo’s higher Elo, slightly better form index and recent clay match wins give him a narrow projected advantage. The key factor to watch is how Nava’s superior serve and excellent return index translate on slow clay—if his serve produces free points, he can swing the match despite Tabilo’s edge.

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